WKU Social Science Research Center

WKU Social Science Research Center

Thursday, April 19, 2018

1 comment:

THE BIG RED POLL

Politics in Kentucky

April 11-15, 2018

Dr. Joel Turner

Director, WKU Social Science Research Center

SURVEY METHODOLOGY

The WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a student-led, live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 531 Kentucky residents between April 11-15, 2018. 67% of respondents were reached via land line, and 33% were reached via cell phone. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.2%.

DONALD TRUMP

45% approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, 45% disapprove, and 10% are undecided. 73% of Republicans approve of the President, while only 23% of Democrats and 33% of Independents approve of the job Trump is doing. Trump has a 65% approval rating among conservatives, 42% approval among moderates, and 16% approval among liberals.

MATT BEVIN

Only 32% of Kentuckians approve of the job Matt Bevin is doing as governor, while 56% disapprove, and 12% are undecided. Bevin has an approval rating of 45% among Republicans, 17% among Democrats, and 32% among Independents. Bevin has a 46% approval rating among conservatives, 25% approval among moderates, and 20% approval among liberals.

KENTUCKY LEGISLATURE

Only 25% of Kentuckians approve of the job done by the Kentucky legislature. 58% disapprove, and 17% are undecided. The legislature has a 31% approval rating among Republicans, 20% among Democrats, and 23% among Independents. The legislature has a 26% approval rating among conservatives, 26% approval among moderates, and 19% approval among liberals.

MITCH MCCONNELL

30% of Kentuckians approve of the job Mitch McConnell is doing as Senator. 56% disapprove, and 14% are undecided. He has an approval rating of 37% among Republicans, 21% among Democrats, and 30% among Independents. McConnell has a 28% approval rating among conservatives, 35% approval among moderates, and 21% approval among liberals.

RAND PAUL

Among state politicians we asked about Rand Paul has the highest approval rating at 45%. 42% of Kentuckians disapprove, and 13% are undecided. He has an approval rating of 60% among Republicans, 23% among Democrats, and 55% among Independents. Paul has a 60% approval rating among conservatives, 43% approval among moderates, and 24% approval among liberals.

BIGGEST PROBLEM

Respondents were asked to name the biggest problem currently facing Kentucky. The answer most commonly given was the pension crisis (19%), followed by the opiod crisis (15%) and education (10%). Of course, it is possible that at least some of those mentioning education would have been referring to the pension situation. No other problem mentioned managed to reach double digits in terms of frequency.

PENSION CRISIS

We asked a variety of questions regarding the pension crisis facing Kentucky. First, we asked respondents if they favored Governor Bevin’s position, the teacher’s position, or if they were neutral between the two. 53% expressed support for the teachers, 16% expressed support for the Governor, and 20% indicated neutrality. From a partisan standpoint, support for the Governor’s position was highest among Republicans (28%), while support for the teacher’s position exceeded 50% among Republicans, Democrats, and Independents. Ideologically, support for the Governor’s position is highest among conservatives (30%), while the greatest support for teachers comes from liberals (75%).

Compounding problems for the Governor, 62% disapproved of the manner in which he has handled the pension issue, while only 29% approve of his handling of it. His highest level of approval came from conservatives (43%) and Republicans (41%), while the greatest disapproval came from liberals and Democrats (78% each).

We also asked respondents about their level of support for tax increases, marijuana legalization, and casino gambling as mechanism by which to address the pension shortfall. Casino gambling was the most popular option (56%). This option was supported by 58% of Republican, 57% of Democrats, and 56% of Independents. Marijuana legalization (46%) was the second most popular option. Marijuana legalization was supported by 51% of Democrats, 47% of Independents, and 43% of Republicans. Tax increases, with only 29% support, was the least popular option among Kentuckians.

In the wake of recent teacher protests, we also asked if these demonstrations, and accompanying school closings, made respondents more likely to support, less likely to support, or had no impact on support for pension reform. The protests appear to have had the desired effect, as 36% indicated it made them less likely to support pension reform. 32% indicated that these actions had no impact, and 18% indicated it made them more likely to support pension reform. These protests also had a positive impact across all partisan and ideological groups, as they made conservatives (30%), moderates (37%), and liberals (48%) all less likely to support pension reform.

During the midst of the survey, the Governor made his controversial remarks regarding children in Kentucky being sexually assaulted or otherwise harmed due to being left at home unattended as a result of the teacher protest and corresponding school cancellations. Although the sample is not large enough to make broad claims regarding the impact of this, we do have enough pre- and post-comment data to take a look at the general impact of these remarks.

Roughly a quarter of the sample was contacted after Bevin’s remarks. What we see is roughly a 7 point decline as his approval before the remarks was 34%, while his approval after the remarks was 27%. His disapproval rose from 55% before his remarks to 60% after his remarks. Although we do not have enough respondents pre- and post-remarks to perform more nuanced analysis, it does appear that they did indeed negatively impact his approval.

GUN POLICY

We asked a variety of questions regarding gun policy in the wake of high profile school shootings that have occurred in the U.S. First, we asked respondents if they favored having an armed resource officer at all public schools. This proposal received overwhelming support from Kentuckians (70%). Support for this was bipartisan, as it was supported by 78% of Republicans, 72% of Independents, and 63% of Democrats, and crossed ideological lines, as it was supported by a majority of moderates, liberals, and conservatives. Additionally, 63% of those in favor of this also supported a tax increase in order to pay for it. Again, in each instance a majority of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents demonstrated support for this proposal.

Finally, 70% of respondents favored raising the minimum age to purchase an AR-15 from 18 to 21. This policy was supported by 79% of Democrats, 73% of Independents, and 64% of Republicans. This proposal also received 82% support from liberals, 79% support from moderates, and 62% from conservatives.

ABOUT THE WKU SSRC

The WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology, and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person interviews. For the latest news on what is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) or follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC).

DONALD TRUMP

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?

		Gender		Party Id			Ideology			Income
	All	Men	Women	Rep	Dem	Ind	Con	Mod	Lib	<50	50<100	100+
Approve	45	52	43	73	22	33	65	42	16	49	44	48
Disapprove	45	39	46	17	76	48	26	42	82	42	44	45
Not sure/refused	10	9	11	10	2	19	19	18	2	10	12	8

	Age				Race		Education
	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	White	Non-White	HS or less	College	Adv. Degree
Approve	40	30	33	54	75	41	44	50	35
Disapprove	32	40	38	30	10	38	41	41	62
Not sure/refused	28	40	19	16	15	10	15	19	3

MATT BEVIN

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Matt Bevin is handling his job as Governor?

		Gender		Party Id			Ideology			Income
	All	Men	Women	Rep	Dem	Ind	Con	Mod	Lib	<50	50<100	100+
Approve	32	41	29	45	18	32	47	25	20	34	24	40
Disapprove	56	54	57	43	76	51	41	62	72	55	60	52
Not sure/refused	12	5	13	12	6	17	12	13	8	11	16	8

	Age				Race		Education
	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	White	Non-White	HS or less	College	Adv. Degree
Approve	30	30	33	37	32	32	36	31	32
Disapprove	55	56	55	61	56	59	55	55	56
Not sure/refused	15	14	12	2	12	9	9	14	12

KENTUCKY LEGISLATURE

Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Kentucky state legislature is handling its job?

		Gender		Party Id			Ideology			Income
	All	Men	Women	Rep	Dem	Ind	Con	Mod	Lib	<50	50<100	100+
Approve	25	21	24	31	20	23	26	26	19	26	22	25
Disapprove	58	57	57	50	65	61	57	54	70	52	73	58
Not sure/refused	17	12	19	19	15	16	17	20	11	22	5	17

	Age				Race		Education
AD	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	White	Non-White	HS or less	College	Adv. Degree
Approve	31	27	20	16	24	28	26	25	20
Disapprove	58	55	59	64	58	57	54	58	69
Not sure/refused	11	18	21	20	18	15	20	17	11

MITCH MCCONNELL

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mitch McConnell is handling his job as Senator?

		Gender		Party Id			Ideology			Income
	All	Men	Women	Rep	Dem	Ind	Con	Mod	Lib	<50	50<100	100+
Approve	30	31	30	37	21	30	28	35	21	32	28	27
Disapprove	56	61	54	47	67	56	60	47	68	53	60	62
Not sure/refused	14	8	16	16	12	14	12	18	11	15	12	11

	Age				Race		Education
	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	White	Non-White	HS or less	College	Adv. Degree
Approve	45	28	23	14	30	31	34	28	26
Disapprove	45	58	63	64	58	43	56	55	65
Not sure/refused	10	14	14	22	12	26	10	17	9

RAND PAUL

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rand Paul is handling his job as Senator?

		Gender		Party Id			Ideology			Income
	All	Men	Women	Rep	Dem	Ind	Con	Mod	Lib	<50	50<100	100+
Approve	45	51	43	60	23	55	60	43	24	46	36	45
Disapprove	42	43	42	28	61	38	31	38	65	40	52	43
Not sure/refused	13	6	15	12	14	8	9	19	11	14	12	12

	Age				Race		Education
	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	White	Non-White	HS or less	College	Adv. Degree
Approve	43	52	38	44	46	39	39	50	44
Disapprove	42	37	47	50	41	53	48	38	47
Not sure/refused	15	11	15	6	13	8	13	12	9

PARTY IDENTIFICATION

Regardless of how you voted in the last election, do you consider yourself to be a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

Democrat 36%

Independent 20%

Republican 40%

Not Sure 4%

IDEOLOGY

On a scale of one to ten where one represents very liberal and ten represents very conservative where would you place yourself? ***(1-4 classified as liberal, 5-6 as moderate, and 7-10 as conservative)***

Liberal 24%

Moderate 32%

Conservative 40%

Refused 4%

SEX

What is your sex?

Male 46%

Female 54%

EDUCATION

What is the highest level of formal education you completed?

Less Than High School 2%

Some High School 3%

High School Graduate/GED 26%

Vocational/Technical School 10%

Some College 21%

College Degree 26%

Post-Graduate Degree 12%

RACE

Would you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American, Asian American, Biracial, or something else? ***(collapsed into white/non-white categories)***

White 88%

Non-white 12%

AGE

What is your age?

18-34 26%

35-49 30%

50-64 30%

65+ 18%

INCOME

Which of the following categories best describes your total household yearly income? Less than 25,000, 25,000 to less than 50,000, 50,000 to less than 75,000, 75,000 to less than 100,000, or 100,000 or more? ***(collapsed into less than 50,000, 50,000 to 100,000, and more than 100,000)***

Less than 50,000 46%

50,000 to <100,000 38%

100,000 or more 16%

Refused 9%

PENSION 1

Governor Bevin and a large number of teachers have been in disagreement over how to reform the pension for Kentucky teachers. Are you generally more supportive of the Governors position, the teachers’ position, or are you generally neutral in the in the political debate over pension reform.

Governor 16%

Teachers 53%

Neutral 20%

Not sure/refused 11%

PENSION 2

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Bevin has handled the pension crisis?

Approve 29%

Disapprove 62%

Not sure/Refused 9%

	Party Id			Ideology
	Rep	Dem	Ind	Con	Mod	Lib
Approve	41	16	32	43	24	18
Disapprove	48	78	60	48	66	78
Not sure/refused	11	7	8	9	10	5

PENSION 3

Several school districts across Kentucky closed over the past couple of weeks to allow teacher to go to Frankfort to protest pension reform legislation. Did these actions make you more likely to support, less likely to support, or have no impact on your support of proposed pension reform?

More likely 18%

Less likely 36%

No impact 32%

Not sure/Refused 14%

PENSION 4

Do you support or oppose the following proposals as ways to help the state government fund the state's pension obligations?

Tax increases

Support 24%

Oppose 54%

Not sure/Refused 22%

Marijuana Legalization

Support 46%

Oppose 39%

Not sure/Refused 15%

Casino Gambling

Support 56%

Oppose 22%

Not sure/Refused 22%

ARMED RESOURCE OFFICER

Do you think the state of Kentucky should, or should not, allocate state money each year to pay the salary and other related expenses to put a full-time armed, trained law enforcement officer -- known as a school resource officer -- in every public school in the state?

Should 70%

Should not 15%

Not sure/Refused 15%

ARMED RESOURCE OFFICER FOLLOW UP

Would you support an increase in taxes to support putting a school resource officer in every Kentucky public school? ***(asked to those who answered should to previous question)***

Yes 63%

No 20%

Not sure/Refused 17%

AR-15 AGE LIMIT

Do you think Kentucky should, or should not, pass a law raising the minimum age for purchasing a semi-automatic weapon, such as the AR-15, from 18-21 years old?

Should 70%

Should not 23%

Not sure/Refused 7%

BIGGEST PROBLEM

What do you believe is the biggest problem facing Kentucky? ***(open ended)***

Pension crisis 19%

Opiod crisis 15%

Education 10%

All others combined 56%

***Problems listed are ones that reached double digit percentage in mentions***

Not sure/refused