THE BIG RED POLL
The 2014 U.S.
Senate Race in Kentucky
October 6-19,
2014
Dr. Joel Turner
Director, WKU
Social Science Research Center
Executive Summary
MIDTERM ELECTION SURVEY
The
WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a
live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 601 registered
Kentucky voters between October 6-October 20, 2014. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4%.
U.S. SENATE RACE
According
to the latest Big Red Poll, Republican Senator Mitch McConnell leads Democratic
challenger Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes 45% - 40% among
registered Kentucky voters. Just over 5%
indicated support for Libertarian candidate David Patterson, and nearly 10%
indicated that they are still undecided.
McConnell also has nearly a 4 point lead over Grimes among likely voters
(those who indicated they were definitely going to vote in the upcoming election)
45.4%-41.7%. Just over 5% of this group
indicated that they support Patterson, and nearly 8% indicated they are
undecided.
Both
candidates are doing well among their respective partisan and ideological
groups. Among Republicans, McConnell
leads Grimes 85%-7%, and among conservatives McConnell lead 73%-16%. Conversely, among Democrats Grimes leads
McConnell 80%-13%, and among liberals Grimes leads 73%-17%. McConnell leads among independents by a
margin of 39%-35%, while Grimes leads among moderate voters 48%-36%. There is also evidence of a gender gap in
Kentucky. Grimes leads among female
voters (51%-36%), while McConnell leads among male voters (55%-33%).
A
fascinating element of this campaign is the strong evidence of protest support
among the candidates. Respondents were
asked if they were voting for the candidate of their choice because they
supported that candidate or opposed the opposition. Stark differences between the candidates
emerged here. The majority of those
voting for McConnell (62%) indicated support for the Senator as their reason
for voting for him. In contrast, the
majority of those backing Grimes (60%) indicated opposition to McConnell as
motivating their support for her.
APPROVAL RATINGS
President Obama
Respondents
were asked whether they approved or disapproved of the job performance of both
President Obama and Congress. Kentuckians
indicated they were not very satisfied with the performance of the President,
as only 30% indicated they approved of the job President Obama was doing, while
65% indicated they disapproved of the job President Obama is doing. Those who disapprove of the job President
Obama is doing are more likely to vote for Mitch McConnell (63%). Those who approve of the job President Obama
is doing said they are more likely to vote for Grimes (84%).
Congress
Kentuckians
also indicated strong dissatisfaction with the performance of Congress. Only 14% indicated they approved of the job
Congress is doing, while 80% indicated they disapproved with the job Congress
is doing. McConnell leads Grimes
irrespective of whether the respondent approves (51%-37%) or disapproves
(45%-40%) of the job Congress is doing.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Respondents
were asked to provide favorability ratings for several national and state
political figures. Those survey were
relatively split on Senator McConnell, as 44% had a favorable view of him and
51% had an unfavorable view of him. 38%
had a favorable view of Secretary Grimes, while 47% had an unfavorable view of
her. Perhaps most surprising was that
15% of respondents indicated that they did not have enough information to make
an evaluation of Grimes. This suggests
that Grimes still has work to do introducing herself to voters, or perhaps that
the McConnell camp has been successful in their attempts to define who she
is. With regard to other figures,
President Obama had favorability/unfavorability ratings of 36%-62%, Senator
Paul had a favorability/unfavorability rating of 50%-37%, and Gov. Steve
Beshear continues to be the most popular politician in the state, as he has a
favorability rating of 55%-33%.
ISSUES
Most Important Issue
Respondents
were asked a variety of issue questions.
They were asked to identify what they thought was the most important
issue facing the U.S. The top three (in
order) were: the economy (29%), jobs
(17%), and international affairs (16%).
They were also asked specific questions about the economy, Obamacare,
immigration, and the minimum wage.
Economy
Respondents
were split about the state of the national economy, as roughly 41% thought the
economy had gotten better over the last year, 40% thought it had gotten worse,
and 19% thought it was about the same. McConnell
leads among those who think the economy has gotten worse (61%-19%) or stayed
the same (62%-27%) over the past year, while Grimes leads among those who think
the economy has gotten better over the last year (72%-18%).
Immigration
Respondents
were also split on whether the focus of immigration policy should be stopping
the flow of illegal immigrants (50.4%) or dealing with those already here (49.6%). McConnell leads among those who think the
priority should be stopping the flow of illegal immigrants (61%-28%), while
Grimes leads among those who think the priority should be dealing with those
already here (54%-32%). Respondents were
also asked what should be done about those already in the country
illegally. A majority did indicate
support for allowing those already here to stay and become citizens (48%) as
opposed to letting them stay without citizenship (37%) or be forced to leave
the country (15%). Grimes leads among
those who support allowing illegals already here to apply for citizenship
(55%-32%), while McConnell leads among those who support allowing them to stay
without citizenship (65%-29%) and those who support deportation (61%-26%).
Obamacare/ACA
Obamacare
remains unpopular in the state. When
asked what effect they thought the law would have on healthcare in Kentucky, 50%
felt the law would make things worse, while only 32% thought it would make
things better and 14% didn’t think the law would make a difference. Not surprisingly, McConnell leads among those
who think the law will make things worse (77%-11%) and Grimes leads among those
who think the law will make things better (76%-11%).
Minimum Wage
Finally,
respondents were asked about a minimum wage increase. Kentuckians overwhelmingly support a minimum
wage increase in Kentucky (59%-36%). Grimes
leads among those who support increasing the minimum wage (62%-24%), and
McConnell leads among those who oppose an increase (69%-15%).
TEA PARTY
13%
of those surveyed self-identified as members of the TEA Party. Additionally, nearly a third (32%) of those
who did not self-identify indicated that they were sympathetic to the views
expressed by the TEA Party. Despite
concerns about McConnell’s level of support among the TEA Party, he appears to
have done well with regard to shoring up support from both groups, as he leads
Grimes 87%-5% among self-described TEA Party members, and 70%-21% among those
who consider themselves to be sympathetic to the cause of the TEA Party.
ATTITUDES ABOUT GOVERNMENT
Finally,
attitudes about government are mixed in the Commonwealth. An overwhelming majority of respondents (83%)
felt that things in this country have gotten off on the wrong track. 60% of
those surveyed indicated a belief that government was trying to do too many
things that should be left to businesses and individuals, 63% expressed
skepticism about the federal government’s ability to solve federal problems,
and 80% thought that the federal government should only do things that cannot
be handled at the state level. However,
respondents expressed far more confidence in the ability of state government
(74%) and local government (73%) to handle state and local problems,
respectively.
METHODOLOGY
The
mode of data collection used for this survey is live interviewer RDD telephone
interviews. A dual frame approach was
used, which included a random sample of both cell phones and landlines. The sample for this survey was acquired from
Survey Sampling International. The
survey was in the field from October 6-19, 2014. The sample size was 601, which produced a
margin of error of +/- 4%. Calls were
made from Monday through Friday from 4-8 PM, and from 1-5 PM on weekends. Additional questions regarding methodology
can be directed to Dr. Joel Turner at joel.turner@wku.edu.
ABOUT THE WKU SSRC
The
WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a
coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology,
and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct
surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person
interviews. For the latest news on what
is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) or
follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC).
SENATE RACE
If
the election for Senate were held today, would you vote for Republican Mitch
McConnell, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, Libertarian David Patterson, or
are you undecided? [Rotate names]
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||||
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
McConnell
|
45
|
55
|
36
|
85
|
13
|
39
|
73
|
37
|
17
|
38
|
56
|
52
|
Lundergan-Grimes
|
40
|
34
|
51
|
7
|
80
|
35
|
16
|
48
|
73
|
43
|
35
|
43
|
Patterson
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
3
|
3
|
11
|
6
|
6
|
5
|
7
|
3
|
7
|
Undecided
|
10
|
6
|
9
|
5
|
5
|
15
|
5
|
11
|
5
|
13
|
6
|
2
|
Total
|
100
|
56
|
44
|
34
|
35
|
27
|
37
|
39
|
18
|
57
|
33
|
9
|
Age
|
Race
|
||||||
LV
|
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Black
|
|
McConnell
|
45
|
38
|
49
|
51
|
47
|
53
|
15
|
Lundergan-Grimes
|
42
|
46
|
39
|
37
|
44
|
35
|
79
|
Patterson
|
5
|
6
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
Undecided
|
8
|
9
|
8
|
8
|
5
|
8
|
7
|
Total
|
93
|
24
|
30
|
30
|
15
|
80
|
12
|
VOTE
Do
you plan to vote in the 2014 election?
Yes 93%
No 5%
Not
Sure 2%
PROTEST VOTE
[If
voting for McConnell] Are you voting that way because you support Mitch
McConnell or oppose Alison Lundergan Grimes?
Support
McConnell 62%
Oppose
Grimes 33%
DK/Refused 5%
[If
voting for Grimes] Are you voting that way because you support Alison Lundergan
Grimes or oppose Mitch McConnell?
Support
Grimes 34%
Oppose
McConnell 60%
DK/Refused
6%
APPROVAL PRESIDENT
Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove, or strongly disapprove of
the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
Strongly
Approve
5%
Approve 25%
Disapprove 24%
Strongly
Disapprove 42%
DK/Refused
4%
APPROVAL CONGRESS
Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove, or strongly disapprove of
the job Barack Obama is doing as President?
Strongly
Approve
1%
Approve 12%
Disapprove 40%
Strongly
Disapprove 40%
DK/Refused
7%
IMPORTANT ISSUE
What
is the most important issue in the United States? [open ended]
Economy 29%
Jobs 17%
International
Affairs/Defense 17%
Healthcare/Obamacare 12%
Immigration
5%
Poverty/Welfare
5%
God/Religion/Morality 4%
Education
3%
Budget/Debt
3%
Environment/Energy 1%
DK/Refused
4%
FAVORABILITY
Do
you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the following politicians?
Favorable Unfavorable Not Enough Info
Mitch
McConnell 44% 51% 5%
Alison
Lundergan Grimes 38% 47% 15%
Barack
Obama 36% 62% 2%
Rand
Paul
50%
37%
13%
Steve
Beshear
56% 32% 12%
RIGHT TRACK/WRONG TRACK
Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right
direction or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?
Right
Track 13%
Wrong
Track 83%
Not
Sure 4%
ECONOMY
Would you say that over the past year the nation's economy has gotten a
lot better, a little better, stayed about the same, or gotten a little worse,
or gotten a lot worse?
A
Lot Better
7%
A
Little Better 34%
Stayed
About the Same 19%
A
Little Worse 23%
A
Lot Worse 17%
MINIMUM WAGE
Do
you strongly support, support, oppose, or strongly oppose raising the minimum
wage?
Strongly
Support 27%
Support 32%
Oppose 20%
Strongly
Oppose 16%
Not
Sure 5%
OBAMACARE/ACA
Do you think the Affordable Care Act, often referred to as Obamacare,
will make the healthcare situation in Kentucky better, worse, or not make much
difference?
Make
Things Better 32%
Not
Make Much Difference 14%
Make
Things Worse 50%
No
Opinion/Refused 4%
IMMIGRATION/FOCUS
If you had to choose, what should be the main focus of U.S. immigration
policy: halting the flow of illegal immigrants, or deal with those that are in
the U.S. illegally?
Halting
The Flow Of Illegal Immigrants 50%
Dealing
With Those Here Illegally 50%
IMMIGRATION/PLAN
Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are living
in the U.S.? They should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and apply for
citizenship, they should be allowed to stay in the U.S. but not apply for
citizenship, or they should be required to leave the U.S.
Stay
And Apply For Citizenship 48%
Stay
But Not Become A Citizen 15%
Leave
The Country 37%
TRUST IN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT
How much trust and confidence do you have in the federal government when
it comes to handling federal problems: A great deal, a fair amount, not very
much, none at all?
A
Great Deal 8%
A
Fair Amount 29%
Not
Very Much 44%
None
At All 19%
TRUST IN STATE GOVERNMENT
How much trust and confidence do you have in the state government when it
comes to handling state problems: A great deal, a fair amount, not very much,
none at all?
A
Great Deal 13%
A
Fair Amount 61%
Not
Very Much 20%
None
At All 6%
TRUST IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT
How much trust and confidence do you have in your local government when
it comes to handling local problems: A great deal, a fair amount, not very
much, none at all?
A
Great Deal 22%
A
Fair Amount 51%
Not
Very Much 20%
None
At All 7%
FEDERALISM
Do
you strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the following
statement: The federal government should
only run those problems that cannot be handled at the state level.
Strongly
Agree 47%
Agree 33%
Disagree 10%
Strongly
Disagree 10%
TEA PARTY 1
Do
you consider yourself to be a member of the TEA Party?
Yes 13%
No 87%
TEA PARTY 2
(If
not a member) Do you consider yourself to be sympathetic to the goals of the
TEA Party?
Yes 32%
No 51%
Not
Sure 17%
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Do
you consider yourself to be a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
Democrat 35%
Independent 27%
Republican 35%
Not
Sure 3%
IDEOLOGY
Do
you consider yourself to be a liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Liberal 19%
Moderate 39%
Conservative 37%
Refused 5%
GENDER
What
is your gender?
Male 56%
Female 44%
EDUCATION
What
is the highest level of formal education you completed?
Less
Than High School 2%
Some
High School 3%
High
School Graduate/GED 23%
Vocational/Technical
School 6%
Some
College 21%
College
Degree 30%
Post-Graduate
Degree 15%
RACE
Would
you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American,
Asian American, Biracial, or something else?
White 81%
African-American 12%
Hispanic 3%
Biracial 3%
Other 1%
AGE
What
is your age?
18-34 25%
35-49 30%
50-64 30%
65+ 15%
INCOME
Is
your annual household income less than 25,000; 25,000 to less than 50,000;
50,000 to less than 75,000; 75,000 to less than 100,000; 100,000 or more?
Less
than 25,000 13%
25,000
to <50,000 28%
50,000
to <75,000 25%
75,000
to <100,000 14%
100,000
or more 11%
Refused 10%
RELIGIOSITY
Aside from weddings and funerals, how often do you attend religious
services... more than once a week, once a week, once or twice a month, a few
times a year, seldom, or never?
More
than once a week 17%
Once
A Week 30%
Once
Or Twice A Month 17%
A
Few Times A Year 12%
Seldom 16%
Never 8%
