THE BIG RED POLL
Politics in the
Commonwealth 2017
October 16-20, 23-27,
2017
Dr. Joel Turner
Director, WKU
Social Science Research Center
Executive Summary
MIDTERM ELECTION SURVEY
The
WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a
live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 562 Kentuckians
between October 16-October 27, 2017. The
survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.13%.
APPROVAL RATINGS
President Trump
Kentuckians
indicated they were fairly satisfied with the performance of the President, as 50%
of those surveyed approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as President. 42% disapprove, and 8% indicated that they
were not sure. 78% of Republicans voiced
their approval, while 68% of Democrats disapproved of Trump’s performance. Independents were largely split on the
President, with 48% indicating approval and 44% indicating disapproval. Ideologically, 80% of conservatives approve
of Trump’s job performance, while 82% of liberals and 56% of moderates
disapproved.
Governor Bevin
Kentuckians
were largely split with regard to the performance of the governor, as 43%
indicated approval, 42% disapprove, and 15% indicated they were not sure. 58% of Republicans approve, while 65% of
Democrats disapproved of Governor Bevin’s performance. 50% of Independent indicated approval, while
39% indicated disapproval.
Ideologically, 60% of conservatives approve of Bevin’s job performance,
while 71% of liberals and 46% of moderates disapproved.
Congress
Kentuckians
indicated strong dissatisfaction with the performance of Congress. Only 18% indicated they approved of the job
Congress is doing, while 72% indicated they disapproved with the job Congress
is doing. 33% of Republicans indicate
that they approve of the job Congress is doing.
Every other partisan and ideological group is below that number, with
the lowest approval rating being among Democrats at 10%.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Respondents
were asked to provide favorability ratings for several national and state political
figures. Respondents were relatively
split on President Trump, as 50% had a favorable view of him and 46% had an
unfavorable view of him. The politician
with the lowest favorability was Senator McConnell, who was viewed favorably by
only 24% of respondents, while 62% had an unfavorable view of him. 46% had a favorable view of Senator Rand
Paul, while 39% had an unfavorable view of him.
At the state level, respondents were also split on Governor Bevin, as
43% have a favorable view of him and 41% have an unfavorable view of him. Finally, with regard to Attorney General Andy
Beshear, 32% have a favorable view of him, 35% have an unfavorable view, and
33% indicated they did not have enough information to form an opinion.
RIGHT TRACK/WRONG TRACK
68%
of respondents felt that things in this country have gotten off on the wrong
track, while 26% believed things were heading in the right direction. This is down 15 points from the last time
this question was asked during the Obama administration, when 83% indicated the
country had gotten off on the wrong track.
ISSUES
Most Important Issue
Respondents
were asked a variety of issue questions.
They were asked to identify what they thought was the most important
issue facing the U.S. The top three (in
order) were: the economy (20%),
healthcare (18%), and international affairs (16%). We also asked specific issue questions which
are highlighted below:
·
58%
of Kentuckians support increasing the minimum wage
·
60%
of Kentuckians believe Obamacare should be repealed and replaced
·
55%
of Kentuckians oppose building a wall to control illegal immigration
·
55%
of Kentuckians believe community college should be free for anyone who wants to
attend
·
54%
of Kentuckians believe recreational use of marijuana should be decriminalized
TEA PARTY
7%
of those surveyed self-identified as members of the TEA Party. Additionally, more than a quarter (28%) of
those who did not self-identify indicated that they were sympathetic to the
views expressed by the TEA Party.
NFL PROTESTS
Kentuckians
are largely on the side of President Trump with regard to the national anthem
protests. 59% believe the players are
being disrespectful by kneeling during the national anthem, and 58% believe the
protests are unpatriotic. 69% of those
surveyed believe everyone should stand during the national anthem who is
physically able to do so. Additionally,
almost the same percentage of respondents believe the protest is about Donald
Trump (38%) as believe it is about police violence (39%). Respondents do part ways with the President
on the issue of NFL employment, however, as 51% of respondents disagreed with
the statement that owners should fire any players who do not stand for the
anthem. On a related note, 70% of
respondents believe that the state of race relations in this country is either
fairly bad or very bad.
HAPPY HALLOWEEN
In
honor of the season, we also asked a few Halloween related questions. First, we asked respondents to identify their
favorite chocolate based candy. The most
popular answer was Reese’s Cups (25%), followed by Hershey Bars (18%) and
Snickers (13%). With regard to
non-chocolate based candies, the most popular was Skittles (13%), followed by
Payday (6%) and Gummy Bears (5%). With
regard to preferences, 66% of respondents prefer chocolate based candies, 26%
prefer non-chocolate based, and 6% expressed no preference. Finally, with regard to perhaps the most
controversial Halloween-related candy question, 22% of respondents believe candy
corn is an excellent candy, 36% believe it is an average candy, and 40% believe
it is a terrible candy.
METHODOLOGY
The mode
of data collection used for this survey is live interviewer RDD telephone
interviews. A dual frame approach was
used, which included a random sample of both cell phones and landlines. The sample for this survey was acquired from
Survey Sampling International. The
survey was in the field from October 16-27, 2017. The sample size was 562, which produced a
margin of error of +/- 4.13%. Calls were
made from Monday through Friday from 5-9 PM.
Additional questions regarding methodology can be directed to Dr. Joel
Turner at joel.turner@wku.edu.
ABOUT THE WKU SSRC
The
WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a
coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology,
and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct
surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person
interviews. For the latest news on what
is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) or
follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC).
APPROVAL PRESIDENT
Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove, or strongly disapprove of
the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
Strongly
Approve 21%
Approve 29%
Disapprove 16%
Strongly
Disapprove 26%
DK/Refused
8%
APPROVAL CONGRESS
Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove, or strongly disapprove of
the job Congress is doing?
Strongly
Approve
2%
Approve 16%
Disapprove 47%
Strongly
Disapprove 26%
DK/Refused
9%
APPROVAL BEVIN
Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove, or strongly disapprove of
the job Matt Bevin is doing as Governor?
Strongly
Approve
9%
Approve 34%
Disapprove 25%
Strongly
Disapprove 18%
DK/Refused 15%
IMPORTANT ISSUE
What
is the most important issue in the United States? [open ended]
Economy 19%
International
Affairs/Defense 15%
Healthcare/Obamacare 17%
Immigration
5%
Poverty/Welfare
5%
God/Religion/Morality 12%
Education
6%
Budget/Debt
7%
Environment/Energy 3%
DK/Refused
4%
FAVORABILITY
Do
you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the following politicians?
Favorable Unfavorable Not Enough Info
Donald
Trump 50% 46% 4%
Mitch
McConnell 24% 62% 14%
Matt
Bevin 43% 42% 15%
Rand
Paul 45% 39% 16%
Andy
Beshear 32% 35% 33%
RIGHT TRACK/WRONG TRACK
Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right
direction or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?
Right
Track 26%
Wrong
Track 68%
Not
Sure 6%
MINIMUM WAGE
Do
you strongly support, support, oppose, or strongly oppose raising the minimum
wage?
Strongly
Support 23%
Support 35%
Oppose 23%
Strongly
Oppose 12%
Not
Sure 7%
OBAMACARE REPEAL
Do you strongly agree, agree, neither agree not disagree, disagree, or
strongly disagree that the Affordable Care Act, often referred to as Obamacare,
should be repealed and replaced?
Strongly
Agree 28%
Agree 31%
Neither
agree nor disagree 10%
Disagree 20%
Strongly
Disagree 10%
IMMIGRATION/WALL
Do you strongly agree, agree, neither agree not disagree, disagree, or
strongly disagree that we should build a wall to help deal with illegal
immigration.
Strongly
Agree 18%
Agree 21%
Neither
agree nor disagree 5%
Disagree 27%
Strongly
Disagree 28%
COMMUNITY COLLEGE
Do you strongly agree, agree, neither agree not disagree, disagree, or
strongly disagree that community college should be free for anyone who wishes
to attend.
Strongly
Agree 20%
Agree 35%
Neither
agree nor disagree 8%
Disagree 30%
Strongly
Disagree 9%
MARIJUANA DECRIMINALIZATION
Do you strongly agree, agree, neither agree not disagree, disagree, or
strongly disagree that recreational use of marijuana should be decriminalized
in Kentucky
Strongly
Agree 24%
Agree 30%
Neither
agree nor disagree 9%
Disagree 13%
Strongly
Disagree 14%
TEA PARTY 1
Do
you consider yourself to be a member of the TEA Party?
Yes 13%
No 87%
TEA PARTY 2
(If
not a member) Do you consider yourself to be sympathetic to the goals of the
TEA Party?
Yes 32%
No 51%
Not
Sure 17%
NFL PROTESTS/DISRESPECTFUL
Do
you strongly agree, agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree, or strongly
disagree that NFL players are being disrespectful by kneeling during the
national anthem
Strongly
Agree 38%
Agree 21%
Neither
agree nor disagree 7%
Disagree 19%
Strongly
Disagree 14%
NFL PROTESTS/FIRE
Do
you strongly agree, agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree, or strongly
disagree that NFL owners should fire players who protest during the national
anthem
Strongly
Agree 21%
Agree 17%
Neither
agree nor disagree 12%
Disagree 28%
Strongly
Disagree 23%
NFL PROTESTS/DISRESPECTFUL
Do
you strongly agree, agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree, or strongly
disagree that the NFL protests are unpatriotic
Strongly
Agree 31%
Agree 26%
Neither
agree nor disagree 9%
Disagree 20%
Strongly
Disagree 13%
NFL PROTESTS/POLICE VIOLENCE
Do
you strongly agree, agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree, or strongly
disagree that the NFL protests are primarily about police violence
Strongly
Agree 8%
Agree 31%
Neither
agree nor disagree 16%
Disagree 35%
Strongly
Disagree 10%
NFL PROTESTS/TRUMP
Do
you strongly agree, agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree, or strongly
disagree that the NFL protests are primarily about Donald Trump
Strongly
Agree 12%
Agree 26%
Neither
agree nor disagree 14%
Disagree 39%
Strongly
Disagree 9%
ANTHEM STAND
Do
you strongly agree, agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree, or strongly
disagree that everyone should stand for the national anthem who is physically
able to do so
Strongly
Agree 35%
Agree 33%
Neither
agree nor disagree 11%
Disagree 16%
Strongly
Disagree 4%
RACE RELATIONS
Do
you believe race relations in this country are very good, fairly good, fairly
bad, or very bad?
Very
Good 2%
Fairly
Good 25%
Fairly
Bad 40%
Very
Bad 30%
Not
sure/refused 3%
FAVORITE CANDY/CHOCOLATE
What
is your favorite chocolate based candy?
Reese’s
Cups 25%
Hershey
Bars 18%
Snickers 13%
All
others 44%
FAVORITE CANDY/NON-CHOCOLATE
What
is your favorite chocolate based candy?
Skittles 13%
Payday 6%
Gummy
Bears 5%
All
others 76%
CHOCOLATE VS NON-CHOCOLATE
Do
you prefer chocolate based or non-chocolate based candy/
Chocolate
based 66%
Non-Chocolate
based 26%
No
Preference 6%
Not
sure 2%
CANDY CORN
Do
you believe candy corn is an excellent candy, an average candy, or a terrible
candy?
Excellent 22%
Average 36%
Terrible 40%
Not
sure 2%
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Do
you consider yourself to be a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
Democrat 36%
Independent 16%
Republican 41%
Not
Sure 8%
IDEOLOGY
Do
you consider yourself to be a liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Liberal 14%
Moderate 36%
Conservative 41%
Refused 8%
GENDER
What
is your gender?
Male 55%
Female 45%
EDUCATION
What
is the highest level of formal education you completed?
Less
Than High School 2%
Some
High School 4%
High
School Graduate/GED 18%
Vocational/Technical
School 3%
Some
College 29%
College
Degree 31%
Post-Graduate
Degree 14%
Would
you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American,
Asian American, Biracial, or something else?
White 81%
African-American 8%
Hispanic 6%
Biracial 3%
Other 2%
AGE
What
is your age?
18-34 25%
35-49 25%
50-64 28%
65+ 22%
INCOME
Is
your annual household income less than 25,000; 25,000 to less than 50,000;
50,000 to less than 75,000; 75,000 to less than 100,000; 100,000 or more?
Less
than 25,000 13%
25,000
to <50,000 16%
50,000
to <75,000 20%
75,000
to <100,000 15%
100,000
or more 18%
Refused 18%
