REPUBLICAN CAUCUS SURVEY
The
WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a
live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 532 likely
Republican Caucus participants in Kentucky between February 22-26, 2016. The sample consisted of registered Republicans
in Kentucky, and likely participants were defined as those indicated a
likelihood of participating in the caucus of at least a 7 on a 10 point
scale. 68% of respondents were reached
via land line, and 32% were reached via cell phone. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.25%.
PRESIDENTIAL RACE
According
to the latest Big Red Poll, Donald Trump leads the Republican field for
President among likely Kentucky Caucus participants with 35%. Trump’s closest competitor, Sen. Marco Rubio,
comes in at 22%, with 15% of likely caucus participants indicating that they
are still undecided.
In
descending order, likely Kentucky Republican Caucus participants support:
Donald
Trump 35%
Marco
Rubio 22%
Ted
Cruz 15%
Ben
Carson 7%
Johh
Kasich 6%
BROAD IDEOLOGICAL APPEAL
Respondents
were asked to self-identify as moderate, somewhat conservative, or very
conservative. 23% identified as
moderate, 36% identified as somewhat conservative, and 39% identified as very
conservative. Trump leads across all
three categories, polling at 40% among moderates, 34% among those who identify
as somewhat conservative, and 33% among those who identify as very
conservative. Rubio polls in 2nd
place across each ideological category.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Respondents
had a different take on the candidates when asked whether they had a favorable
or unfavorable view of each candidate.
Trump finished third here, with Ben Carson leading the pack. Here are the results in descending order:
Ben
Carson 68% Favorable, 17%
Unfavorable, 15% Not Sure
Marco
Rubio 58% Favorable, 32%
Unfavorable, 10% Not Sure
Donald
Trump 53% Favorable, 45%
Unfavorable, 2% Not Sure
Ted
Cruz 51% Favorable,
41% Unfavorable, 8% Not Sure
John
Kasich 47% Favorable, 27%
Unfavorable, 26% Not Sure
CHOOSING A CANDIDATE
Respondents
were asked which of the following mattered most to them when choosing a
candidate: experience, character,
electability, shared religious values, common political ideology, telling it
like it is, or something else. 26%
indicated that character was the most important factor, and among that group
Rubio was the runaway winner with 46% support.
22% indicated that a common ideology was most important, with Ted Cruz
having the most support among those respondents (31%). 18% indicated that “telling it like it is”
was the most important attribute, and Trump was the runaway winner in this
category with 94% support. 13% thought
experience was important, and Trump leads among this group at 44%. 9% indicated shared religious values, and 8
percent indicated “something else”, with Ted Cruz leading each of these
categories (39% and 30% respectively).
Perhaps most surprisingly, only 4% of respondents were concerned about
electability. Votes in this category
were evenly distributed among all candidates.
FEELINGS ABOUT GOVERNMENT
Respondents
were asked whether they were content with, frustrated with, or angry at
government. The general theme this
question engendered was dissatisfaction, as 57% indicated frustration, 31%
indicated anger, while only 5% indicated contentment. Trump is doing very well among those who
indicate frustration (40%) and has a slight lead among those who are angry
(27%). Support among those who are
content is distributed pretty evenly between Kasich and Carson (29% each).
IMPORTANT ISSUE
Respondents
were asked what they thought the most important issue facing the country
was. As is usually the case, jobs and
the economy topped the list (46%). 19%
of respondents indicated terrorism, while 11% either government spending or the
economy. Trump leads his competitors
across all of these categories. He has
41% support among those expressing economic concerns, 40% among those who are
concerned about immigration, 36% among those with terrorism concerns, and 28%
among those concerned about government spending. He outpaces his nearest competitor in the
economic and immigration categories (Rubio and Cruz respectively) by a nearly 2
to 1 margin. He lead is within the margin
of error in terrorism and spending categories (Rubio and Cruz respectively).
PC BACKLASH
The
findings of this poll support the supposition that Trump is tapping into the
frustration some have with a society they believe is too politically correct. 83% of respondents believed that most people
in America were “afraid to truly say what they think for fear of offending
someone.” Among this group, Trump leads
with nearly 40%.
MUSLIM BAN
62%
of respondents support a temporary ban on non-US citizen Muslims from entering
the country. Among this group, Trump
leads with nearly 48%.
IMMIGRANT CONCERNS
60%
of those surveyed indicated that they believed immigrants were taking jobs away
from U.S. citizens. Among this group,
Trump lead with roughly 43%.
EVANGELICALS
61%
of respondents considered themselves to be “born again”, or evangelical,
Christians. Among this group, Trump
leads Rubio by 10 points (36%-26%). An
additional 17% considered themselves to be Christian, but not necessarily
evangelical. Among this group Trump
leads his nearest competitor by a 2 to 1 margin.
TEA PARTY
24%
of those surveyed self-identified as members of the TEA Party. Additionally, 47% of those who did not
self-identify indicated that they were sympathetic to the views expressed by the
TEA Party. Trump has done well among both
groups, as he leads his nearest competitor, Ben Carson, 31%-21% among self-described
TEA Party members, and leads Rubio 41%-29% among those who consider themselves
to be sympathetic to the cause of the TEA Party.
ABOUT THE WKU SSRC
The
WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a
coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology,
and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct
surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person
interviews. For the latest news on what
is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) or
follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC).
PRESIDENTIAL RACE
If
the Republican Caucus for President were held today, would you vote for Donald
Trump, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Ben Carson, or are you undecided? [Names
Rotated]
Gender
|
Evangelical
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||||
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Yes
|
No
|
NEC
|
Mod
|
SC
|
VC
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
Trump
|
35
|
39
|
30
|
36
|
36
|
35
|
40
|
34
|
33
|
52
|
26
|
29
|
Rubio
|
22
|
16
|
29
|
26
|
16
|
17
|
18
|
29
|
23
|
18
|
31
|
25
|
Cruz
|
15
|
17
|
13
|
13
|
26
|
17
|
13
|
10
|
19
|
12
|
18
|
13
|
Kasich
|
6
|
7
|
6
|
4
|
1
|
13
|
11
|
4
|
2
|
1
|
7
|
6
|
Carson
|
7
|
7
|
6
|
6
|
1
|
9
|
10
|
5
|
6
|
7
|
7
|
1
|
Undecided
|
15
|
13
|
16
|
16
|
19
|
9
|
6
|
18
|
16
|
11
|
13
|
27
|
Age
|
Education
|
|||||
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
HS
Grad
|
College
Grad
|
|
Trump
|
22
|
46
|
30
|
42
|
38
|
32
|
Rubio
|
24
|
21
|
17
|
27
|
25
|
23
|
Cruz
|
17
|
10
|
22
|
11
|
12
|
13
|
Kasich
|
13
|
4
|
1
|
7
|
4
|
7
|
Carson
|
8
|
4
|
6
|
7
|
5
|
10
|
Undecided
|
16
|
14
|
24
|
7
|
16
|
15
|
FAVORABILITY
Please
indicate whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, neutral, or no opinion on
each of the following politicians [Names Rotated]
Favorable Unfavorable Not Enough Info
Ben
Carson 68% 17% 15%
Marco
Rubio 58% 32% 10%
Donald
Trump 53% 45% 2%
Ted
Cruz 51% 41% 8%
John
Kasich 47% 27% 26%
IDEOLOGY
Do
you consider yourself to be moderate, somewhat conservative, or very
conservative?
Liberal 23%
Moderate 36%
Conservative 39%
Not
Sure 2%
TEA PARTY 1
Do
you consider yourself to be a member of the TEA Party?
Yes
24%
No
76%
TEA PARTY 2
(If
not a member) Do you consider yourself to be sympathetic to the goals of the
TEA Party?
Yes 47%
No 30%
Not
Sure 23%
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE
What
issue matters most to you? Immigration reform? Jobs and the economy? Terrorism?
Government spending? Or something else?
Immigration
11%
Jobs/Economy 46%
Terrorism 19%
Spending 11%
CANDIDATE CHARACTERISTICS
What
matters most to you when choosing a candidate for President? Is it experience,
character, electability, shared religious values, common political ideology,
telling it like it is, or something else?
Experience 13%
Character 26%
Electability 4%
Shared
Religious Views 9%
Common
Ideology
18%
Telling
it Like it is 22%
Something
Else 8%
FEELINGS ABOUT GOVERNMENT
Some
people say they are basically content with the federal government, others say
they are frustrated, and others say they are angry. Which of these best
describes how you feel?
Content
5%
Frustrated 57%
Angry 31%
Not
sure 7%
POLITICAL CORRECTNESS
Do you believe that most
people in America are afraid to say what they truly think for fear that someone
might say that they are offended?
Yes
83%
No
12%
Not
sure 5%
IMMIGRANTS
Do
you believe that immigrants take jobs away from American citizens?
Yes
59%
No 22%
Not
sure 19%
MUSLIM BAN
Do
you support or oppose a temporary ban on Muslims who are not US citizens from
entering the country?
Support
62%
Oppose
24%
Not
sure 14%
GENDER
What
is your gender?
Male 56%
Female 44%
EDUCATION
What
is the highest level of formal education you completed?
Less
Than High School 4%
Some
High School 2%
High
School Graduate/GED 25%
Vocational/Technical
School 12%
Some
College 19%
College
Degree 23%
Post-Graduate
Degree 13%
RACE
Would
you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American,
Asian American, Biracial, or something else?
White 90%
African-American 3%
Hispanic 5%
Other 2%
AGE
What
is your age?
18-34 27%
35-49 21%
50-64 23%
65+ 29%
INCOME
Is
your annual household income less than 25,000; 25,000 to less than 50,000;
50,000 to less than 75,000; 75,000 to less than 100,000; 100,000 or more?
Less
than 25,000 8%
25,000
to <50,000 23%
50,000
to <75,000 26%
75,000
to <100,000 14%
100,000
or more 13%
Refused
16%
EVANGELICAL
Would you describe yourself as an evangelical, or “born again”,
Christian?
Yes 61%
No 15%
Christian
but not evangelical 17%
Not
Sure 7%
