Trump, Paul lead in the Commonwealth with one week to go

KENTUCKY GENERAL ELECTION SURVEY

The WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 602 likely voters in Kentucky between October 25-30, 2016.  The sample consisted of registered voters in Kentucky, and likely participants were defined as those indicated a likelihood of participating in the caucus of at least a 7 on a 10 point scale.  70% of respondents were reached via land line, and 30% were reached via cell phone.  The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4%. 

PRESIDENTIAL RACE

According to the latest Big Red Poll, Republican Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary Clinton 54% - 37% in the Presidential race in the Commonwealth.  Independent Evan McMullin, Libertarian Gary Johnson, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are polling at roughly 1% each, with 6% indicating they are still undecided. 

Both candidates are doing well among their respective partisan and ideological groups.  Among Republicans, Trump leads Clinton 84%-8%, and among conservatives Trump leads 79%-12%.  Conversely, among Democrats Clinton leads Trump 68%-22%, and among liberals Clinton leads 83%-10%.  Trump leads among independents by a margin of 62%-29% and among moderate voters 50%-41%.  Trump leads among white voters 60%-33%.  One of the more surprising findings of this survey involves gender, as Trump leads among both male (61%-31%) and female voters (48%-44%).

FBI INVESTIGATION

During the middle of the Big Red Poll FBI director James Comey announced that he was reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton.  This put us in the unique position to determine what, if any, impact this scandal has had in the short term.  We found that in the aftermath of Comey’s announcement Secretary Clinton’s numbers dropped four points, as she polled at 39% in the days before the announcement but only 35% in the days after the announcement.  The sample sizes pre- and post-announcement were very similar (312 pre-announcement and 290 post-announcement). 

QUALIFIED TO BE PRESIDENT

Respondents were also asked whether they thought Trump or Clinton was more qualified to be President, whether both were qualified, or if neither was qualified.  36% of respondents believed that Trump was more qualified, while 35% or respondents thought that Clinton was more qualified.  A quarter of the sample felt that neither candidate was qualified to be President.  Along party lines, Republicans appeared to be most disenchanted with the candidates, as 28% of this group felt neither candidate was qualified to be President, as opposed to 16% of Democrats and 20% of Independents.

U.S. SENATE RACE 

According to the latest Big Red Poll, Republican Senator Rand Paul leads Democratic challenger Jim Gray 55% - 39% among likely Kentucky voters.  6% indicated that they are still undecided.  Among Republicans, Paul leads Gray 80%-13%, and among conservatives he leads 77%-17%.  Conversely, among Democrats Gray leads Paul 67%-30%, and among liberals Gray leads 68%-27%.  Paul leads among independents by a margin of 57%-34%.  Among moderate voters the pair and statistically tied at 49%.  Paul leads among white voters 61%-32%.  Paul also leads among both male (64%-32%) and female voters (46%-44%).  Among Trump supporters, Paul leads Gray 79%-13%.  Among Clinton supporters, Gray leads Paul 78%-18%.

TEA PARTY

The TEA party has recently played a significant role in Kentucky politics.  13% of those surveyed self-identified as members of the TEA Party.  Additionally, 33% of those who did not self-identify indicated that they were sympathetic to the views expressed by the TEA Party.  In the Presidential race, Trump has done well among both groups, as he leads Clinton 76%-18% among self-described TEA Party members and 74%-20% among those who consider themselves to be sympathetic to the cause of the TEA Party.  With regard to the Senate race, Paul leads 81%-10% among TEA Party members and 83%-11% among TEA Party sympathizers.

FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Respondents were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable view of several state and national political figures.

Donald Trump             48% Favorable            49% Unfavorable          3% Not Sure

Hillary Clinton            34% Favorable            64% Unfavorable          2% Not Sure

Barack Obama            31% Favorable            68% Unfavorable          1% Not Sure

Rand Paul                   49% Favorable            42% Unfavorable          9% Not Sure

Jim Gray                      33% Favorable            21% Unfavorable        46% Not Sure

Mitch McConnell        30% Favorable            60% Unfavorable        10% Not Sure

Matt Bevin                  43% Favorable            42% Unfavorable        15% Not Sure

JOB APPROVAL

Respondents were also asked to evaluate the job performance of the President, Congress, and Governor.

Barack Obama            36% Approve              61% Disapprove            3% Not Sure

Congress                     14% Approve             78% Disapprove            8% Not Sure

Matt Bevin                  46% Approve             41% Disapprove          13% Not Sure

ABOUT THE WKU SSRC

The WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology, and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person interviews.  For the latest news on what is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) or follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC)

PRESIDENTIAL RACE

If the Presidential election were held today, would you vote for Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton, Independent Evan McMullin, Libertarian Gary Johnson, Green Party Candidate Jill Stein, or are you undecided? [Names Rotated]

		Gender		Party Id			Ideology			Income
	All	Men	Women	Rep	Dem	Ind	Con	Mod	Lib	<50	50<100	100+
Trump	54	61	48	84	21	62	79	50	10	65	51	44
Clinton	37	31	44	8	68	29	12	41	83	26	43	43
Johnson	1	2	1	1	0	2	2	1	1	1	1	1
McMullin	1	1	1	2	1	2	3	1	1	2	2	5
Stein	1	2	1	1	2	2	1	1	2	1	1	5
Undecided	6	3	5	4	8	3	3	6	3	5	2	2

	Age				Race
	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	White	Nonwhite
Trump	59	60	52	47	60	29
Clinton	28	36	40	38	33	65
Johnson	1	1	1	2	1	2
McMullin	5	1	1	2	1	1
Stein	2	1	1	2	1	1
Undecided	4	1	5	9	4	2

SENATE RACE

If the Kentucky Senate election were held today, would you vote for Republican Rand Paul, Democrat Jim Gray, or are you undecided? [Names Rotated]

		Gender		Party Id			Ideology			Income
	All	Men	Women	Rep	Dem	Ind	Con	Mod	Lib	<50	50<100	100+
Paul	55	64	48	80	30	57	77	49	27	65	55	50
Gray	39	32	44	13	67	34	17	49	68	30	41	43
Undecided	6	4	8	7	3	9	6	2	5	5	4	7

	Age				Race
	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	White	Nonwhite
Paul	57	63	59	63	61	35
Gray	32	31	45	35	32	65
Undecided	10	6	6	2	7	10

FAVORABILITY

Please indicate whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, neutral, or no opinion on each of the following politicians [Names Rotated]

                                    Favorable        Unfavorable                Not Enough Info

Donald Trump                  48%                   49%                                3%

Hillary Clinton                 34%                   64%                                2%

Barack Obama                  31%                  68%                                 1%

Rand Paul                         49%                  42%                                 9%

Jim Gray                           33%                  21%                                46%

Mitch McConnell             30%                   60%                               10%

Matt Bevin                        43%                  42%                                15%

QUALIFIED TO BE PRESIDENT

Who do you believe is more qualified to be President:  Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, both are equally qualified, neither is qualified?

Donald Trump                         36%

Hillary Clinton                        35%

Both                                          2%

Neither                                     25%

Not Sure                                    2%

PARTY ID

Do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, Independent, or are you not sure?

Republican                                                      42%

Democrat                                                         42%

Independent                                                     13%

Not Sure                                                            3%

IDEOLOGY

Do you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate, or conservative, or are you not sure?

Liberal                                                             26%

Moderate                                                         27%

Conservative                                                   42%

Not Sure                                                            5%

TEA PARTY 1

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the TEA Party?

Yes                                                                  13%

No                                                                   87%

TEA PARTY 2

(If not a member) Do you consider yourself to be sympathetic to the goals of the TEA Party?

Yes                                                                  33%

No                                                                   45%

Not Sure                                                          22%

GENDER

What is your gender?

Male                                                                47%

Female                                                             53%

RACE

Would you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American, Asian American, Biracial, or something else?

White                                                              85%

African-American                                             8%

Hispanic                                                            5%

Other                                                                 2%

AGE

What is your age?

18-34                                                               21%

35-49                                                               26%

50-64                                                               28%

65+                                                                  25%

INCOME

Is your annual household income less than 25,000; 25,000 to less than 50,000; 50,000 to less than 75,000; 75,000 to less than 100,000; 100,000 or more?

Less than 25,000                                             11%

25,000 to <50,000                                           21%

50,000 to <75,000                                           19%

75,000 to <100,000                                         12%

100,000 or more                                              16%

Refused                                                           22%