Tuesday, October 31, 2017

Politics in the Commonwealth 2017




THE BIG RED POLL

Politics in the Commonwealth 2017

October 16-20, 23-27, 2017

Dr. Joel Turner
Director, WKU Social Science Research Center


Executive Summary

MIDTERM ELECTION SURVEY
The WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 562 Kentuckians between October 16-October 27, 2017.  The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.13%. 

APPROVAL RATINGS
President Trump
Kentuckians indicated they were fairly satisfied with the performance of the President, as 50% of those surveyed approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as President.  42% disapprove, and 8% indicated that they were not sure.  78% of Republicans voiced their approval, while 68% of Democrats disapproved of Trump’s performance.  Independents were largely split on the President, with 48% indicating approval and 44% indicating disapproval.  Ideologically, 80% of conservatives approve of Trump’s job performance, while 82% of liberals and 56% of moderates disapproved. 

Governor Bevin
Kentuckians were largely split with regard to the performance of the governor, as 43% indicated approval, 42% disapprove, and 15% indicated they were not sure.  58% of Republicans approve, while 65% of Democrats disapproved of Governor Bevin’s performance.  50% of Independent indicated approval, while 39% indicated disapproval.  Ideologically, 60% of conservatives approve of Bevin’s job performance, while 71% of liberals and 46% of moderates disapproved. 

Congress
Kentuckians indicated strong dissatisfaction with the performance of Congress.  Only 18% indicated they approved of the job Congress is doing, while 72% indicated they disapproved with the job Congress is doing.  33% of Republicans indicate that they approve of the job Congress is doing.  Every other partisan and ideological group is below that number, with the lowest approval rating being among Democrats at 10%.

FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Respondents were asked to provide favorability ratings for several national and state political figures.  Respondents were relatively split on President Trump, as 50% had a favorable view of him and 46% had an unfavorable view of him.  The politician with the lowest favorability was Senator McConnell, who was viewed favorably by only 24% of respondents, while 62% had an unfavorable view of him.  46% had a favorable view of Senator Rand Paul, while 39% had an unfavorable view of him.  At the state level, respondents were also split on Governor Bevin, as 43% have a favorable view of him and 41% have an unfavorable view of him.  Finally, with regard to Attorney General Andy Beshear, 32% have a favorable view of him, 35% have an unfavorable view, and 33% indicated they did not have enough information to form an opinion.

RIGHT TRACK/WRONG TRACK
68% of respondents felt that things in this country have gotten off on the wrong track, while 26% believed things were heading in the right direction.  This is down 15 points from the last time this question was asked during the Obama administration, when 83% indicated the country had gotten off on the wrong track. 

ISSUES
Most Important Issue
Respondents were asked a variety of issue questions.  They were asked to identify what they thought was the most important issue facing the U.S.  The top three (in order) were:  the economy (20%), healthcare (18%), and international affairs (16%).  We also asked specific issue questions which are highlighted below:

·         58% of Kentuckians support increasing the minimum wage
·         60% of Kentuckians believe Obamacare should be repealed and replaced
·         55% of Kentuckians oppose building a wall to control illegal immigration
·         55% of Kentuckians believe community college should be free for anyone who wants to attend
·         54% of Kentuckians believe recreational use of marijuana should be decriminalized

TEA PARTY
7% of those surveyed self-identified as members of the TEA Party.  Additionally, more than a quarter (28%) of those who did not self-identify indicated that they were sympathetic to the views expressed by the TEA Party. 

NFL PROTESTS
Kentuckians are largely on the side of President Trump with regard to the national anthem protests.  59% believe the players are being disrespectful by kneeling during the national anthem, and 58% believe the protests are unpatriotic.  69% of those surveyed believe everyone should stand during the national anthem who is physically able to do so.  Additionally, almost the same percentage of respondents believe the protest is about Donald Trump (38%) as believe it is about police violence (39%).  Respondents do part ways with the President on the issue of NFL employment, however, as 51% of respondents disagreed with the statement that owners should fire any players who do not stand for the anthem.  On a related note, 70% of respondents believe that the state of race relations in this country is either fairly bad or very bad.

HAPPY HALLOWEEN
In honor of the season, we also asked a few Halloween related questions.  First, we asked respondents to identify their favorite chocolate based candy.  The most popular answer was Reese’s Cups (25%), followed by Hershey Bars (18%) and Snickers (13%).  With regard to non-chocolate based candies, the most popular was Skittles (13%), followed by Payday (6%) and Gummy Bears (5%).  With regard to preferences, 66% of respondents prefer chocolate based candies, 26% prefer non-chocolate based, and 6% expressed no preference.  Finally, with regard to perhaps the most controversial Halloween-related candy question, 22% of respondents believe candy corn is an excellent candy, 36% believe it is an average candy, and 40% believe it is a terrible candy.

METHODOLOGY
The mode of data collection used for this survey is live interviewer RDD telephone interviews.  A dual frame approach was used, which included a random sample of both cell phones and landlines.  The sample for this survey was acquired from Survey Sampling International.  The survey was in the field from October 16-27, 2017.  The sample size was 562, which produced a margin of error of +/- 4.13%.  Calls were made from Monday through Friday from 5-9 PM.  Additional questions regarding methodology can be directed to Dr. Joel Turner at joel.turner@wku.edu.

ABOUT THE WKU SSRC
The WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology, and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person interviews.  For the latest news on what is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) or follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC).


   
APPROVAL PRESIDENT
Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

Strongly Approve                                           21%
Approve                                                          29%
Disapprove                                                      16%
Strongly Disapprove                                       26%
DK/Refused                                                    8%

APPROVAL CONGRESS
Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job Congress is doing?

Strongly Approve                                            2%
Approve                                                          16%
Disapprove                                                      47%
Strongly Disapprove                                       26%
DK/Refused                                                     9%

APPROVAL BEVIN
Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job Matt Bevin is doing as Governor?

Strongly Approve                                             9%
Approve                                                          34%
Disapprove                                                      25%
Strongly Disapprove                                       18%
DK/Refused                                                    15%

IMPORTANT ISSUE
What is the most important issue in the United States? [open ended]

Economy                                                         19%
International Affairs/Defense                         15%
Healthcare/Obamacare                                    17%
Immigration                                                    5%
Poverty/Welfare                                              5%
God/Religion/Morality                                    12%
Education                                                        6%
Budget/Debt                                                   7%
Environment/Energy                                       3%
DK/Refused                                                    4%


FAVORABILITY
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the following politicians?

                                                Favorable                Unfavorable         Not Enough Info
Donald Trump                             50%                          46%                             4%
Mitch McConnell                         24%                          62%                          14%
Matt Bevin                                   43%                          42%                           15%
Rand Paul                                    45%                           39%                           16%
Andy Beshear                              32%                           35%                           33%

RIGHT TRACK/WRONG TRACK
Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

Right Track                                                     26%
Wrong Track                                                   68%
Not Sure                                                            6%

MINIMUM WAGE
Do you strongly support, support, oppose, or strongly oppose raising the minimum wage?

Strongly Support                                             23%
Support                                                           35%
Oppose                                                            23%
Strongly Oppose                                             12%
Not Sure                                                            7%

OBAMACARE REPEAL
Do you strongly agree, agree, neither agree not disagree, disagree, or strongly disagree that the Affordable Care Act, often referred to as Obamacare, should be repealed and replaced?

Strongly Agree                                                28%
Agree                                                              31%
Neither agree nor disagree                              10%
Disagree                                                          20%
Strongly Disagree                                           10%

IMMIGRATION/WALL
Do you strongly agree, agree, neither agree not disagree, disagree, or strongly disagree that we should build a wall to help deal with illegal immigration.

Strongly Agree                                                18%
Agree                                                              21%
Neither agree nor disagree                                5%
Disagree                                                          27%
Strongly Disagree                                           28%

COMMUNITY COLLEGE
Do you strongly agree, agree, neither agree not disagree, disagree, or strongly disagree that community college should be free for anyone who wishes to attend.

Strongly Agree                                                20%
Agree                                                              35%
Neither agree nor disagree                                8%
Disagree                                                          30%
Strongly Disagree                                             9%

MARIJUANA DECRIMINALIZATION
Do you strongly agree, agree, neither agree not disagree, disagree, or strongly disagree that recreational use of marijuana should be decriminalized in Kentucky

Strongly Agree                                                24%
Agree                                                              30%
Neither agree nor disagree                                9%
Disagree                                                          13%
Strongly Disagree                                           14%

TEA PARTY 1
Do you consider yourself to be a member of the TEA Party?

Yes                                                                  13%
No                                                                   87%

TEA PARTY 2
(If not a member) Do you consider yourself to be sympathetic to the goals of the TEA Party?

Yes                                                                  32%
No                                                                   51%
Not Sure                                                          17%

NFL PROTESTS/DISRESPECTFUL
Do you strongly agree, agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree, or strongly disagree that NFL players are being disrespectful by kneeling during the national anthem

Strongly Agree                                                38%
Agree                                                              21%
Neither agree nor disagree                                7%
Disagree                                                          19%
Strongly Disagree                                           14%

NFL PROTESTS/FIRE
Do you strongly agree, agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree, or strongly disagree that NFL owners should fire players who protest during the national anthem

Strongly Agree                                                21%
Agree                                                              17%
Neither agree nor disagree                              12%
Disagree                                                          28%
Strongly Disagree                                           23%

NFL PROTESTS/DISRESPECTFUL
Do you strongly agree, agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree, or strongly disagree that the NFL protests are unpatriotic

Strongly Agree                                                31%
Agree                                                              26%
Neither agree nor disagree                                9%
Disagree                                                          20%
Strongly Disagree                                           13%

NFL PROTESTS/POLICE VIOLENCE
Do you strongly agree, agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree, or strongly disagree that the NFL protests are primarily about police violence

Strongly Agree                                                  8%
Agree                                                              31%
Neither agree nor disagree                              16%
Disagree                                                          35%
Strongly Disagree                                           10%

NFL PROTESTS/TRUMP
Do you strongly agree, agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree, or strongly disagree that the NFL protests are primarily about Donald Trump

Strongly Agree                                                12%
Agree                                                              26%
Neither agree nor disagree                              14%
Disagree                                                          39%
Strongly Disagree                                             9%

ANTHEM STAND
Do you strongly agree, agree, neither agree nor disagree, disagree, or strongly disagree that everyone should stand for the national anthem who is physically able to do so

Strongly Agree                                                35%
Agree                                                              33%
Neither agree nor disagree                              11%
Disagree                                                          16%
Strongly Disagree                                             4%

RACE RELATIONS
Do you believe race relations in this country are very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad?

Very Good                                                        2%
Fairly Good                                                     25%
Fairly Bad                                                       40%
Very Bad                                                        30%
Not sure/refused                                               3%

FAVORITE CANDY/CHOCOLATE
What is your favorite chocolate based candy?

Reese’s Cups                                                   25%
Hershey Bars                                                   18%
Snickers                                                           13%
All others                                                        44%

FAVORITE CANDY/NON-CHOCOLATE
What is your favorite chocolate based candy?

Skittles                                                            13%
Payday                                                              6%
Gummy Bears                                                   5%
All others                                                        76%

CHOCOLATE VS NON-CHOCOLATE
Do you prefer chocolate based or non-chocolate based candy/

Chocolate based                                              66%
Non-Chocolate based                                     26%
No Preference                                                   6%
Not sure                                                            2%

CANDY CORN
Do you believe candy corn is an excellent candy, an average candy, or a terrible candy?

Excellent                                                         22%
Average                                                           36%
Terrible                                                            40%
Not sure                                                            2%

PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Do you consider yourself to be a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

Democrat                                                        36%
Independent                                                    16%
Republican                                                      41%
Not Sure                                                            8%

IDEOLOGY
Do you consider yourself to be a liberal, moderate, or conservative?

Liberal                                                             14%
Moderate                                                         36%
Conservative                                                   41%
Refused                                                             8%

GENDER
What is your gender?

Male                                                                55%
Female                                                             45%

EDUCATION
What is the highest level of formal education you completed?

Less Than High School                                     2%
Some High School                                            4%
High School Graduate/GED                           18%
Vocational/Technical School                            3%
Some College                                                  29%
College Degree                                               31%
Post-Graduate Degree                                    14%

RACE
Would you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American, Asian American, Biracial, or something else?

White                                                              81%
African-American                                             8%
Hispanic                                                            6%
Biracial                                                              3%
Other                                                                 2%

AGE
What is your age?

18-34                                                               25%
35-49                                                               25%
50-64                                                               28%
65+                                                                  22%

INCOME
Is your annual household income less than 25,000; 25,000 to less than 50,000; 50,000 to less than 75,000; 75,000 to less than 100,000; 100,000 or more?

Less than 25,000                                             13%
25,000 to <50,000                                           16%
50,000 to <75,000                                           20%
75,000 to <100,000                                         15%
100,000 or more                                              18%
Refused                                                           18%

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