Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Dems lead in AG, Sec. of State, and Auditor races; Republicans out front in race for Treasurer and Ag Commissioner



STATE ELECTION SURVEY
The WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 770 likely Kentucky voters between October 19-October 25, 2015.  70% of respondents were reached via land line, and 30% were reached via cell phone.  The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. 

 
ATTORNEY GENERAL
Democrat Andy Beshear leads Republican Whitney Westerfield 42% - 36% among likely Kentucky voters.  22% indicated that they are still undecided.  Among Democrats Beshear leads Westerfield 80%-5%, and among liberals Beshear leads 76%-8%.  Among Republicans, Westerfield leads Beshear 73%-10%, and among conservatives Westerfield leads 56%-24%.  Beshear leads among independents by a margin of 34%-29% and moderate voters 53%-25%.  Beshear leads among female voters (46%-30%), while Westerfield leads among male voters (42%-37%).


 
SECRETARY OF STATE
Democratic incumbent Allison Lundergan-Grimes has the largest lead of all the races we surveyed, as she leads Republican challenger Steve Knipper by 11 points.  Among Democrats Grimes has an 86%-6% lead, and among liberals she leads 82%-8%.  Among Republicans, Knipper leads 67%-8%, and among conservatives Knippere leads 54%-26%.  Grimes leads among independents by a margin of 46%-33% and moderate voters 57%-23%.  Grimes also leads among both male (43% - 40%) and female (50% - 31%) voters.


STATE AUDITOR
In the race for auditor, Democratic incumbent Adam Edelen leads Republican challenger Mike Harmon 40% - 35%.  25% indicated that they are still undecided.  Edelen leads among Democrats 76%-3%, and among liberals he leads 78%-4%.  Harmon leads among Republicans 69%-13%, and among conservatives he leads 55%-22%.  Harmon leads among independents by a margin of 28%-25%, while Edelen leads among moderate voters 46%-24%.  The candidates are tied among male voters (39%-39%), while Edelen leads among female voters (42%-30%).


STATE TREASURER
Republican Allison Ball leads Democrat Rick Nelson 37% - 32%.  31% indicated that they are still undecided.  Ball leads 70%-10% among Republicans and 58%-15% among conservatives.  Nelson leads 60%-8% among Democrats and 62% - 5% among liberals.  Ball leads among moderates (38%-27%) and independents (36%-29%).  Nelson has a slight lead among female voters (31%-30%), while Ball has a more significant lead among male voters (43%-32%).


AGRICULTURE COMMISSIONER
Republican Ryan Quarles leads Democrat Jean-Marie Lawson Spann 37% - 30%, with roughly 1/3 of voters indicating that they are still undecided.  Among Republicans, Quarles leads 67%-3%, and among conservatives he leads 56%-17%.  Spann leads among Democrats 61%-8%, and among liberals 63%-6%.  Quarles leads among independents by a margin of 31%-27%, and Spann leads among moderate voters 30%-25%.  Spann leads by 1 point among female voters (31%-30%), while Quarles leads by 12 points among male voters (41%-29%).

ABOUT THE WKU SSRC
The WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology, and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person interviews.  For the latest news on what is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) or follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC).




ATTORNEY GENERAL
If the election for Attorney General were held today, would you vote for Republican Whitney Westerfield, Democrat Andy Beshear, or are you undecided? [Names Rotated]


Gender
Party Id
Ideology
Income

All
Men
Women
Rep
Dem
Ind
Con
Mod
Lib
<50
50<100
100+
Beshear
42
37
46
10
80
34
24
53
76
44
41
37
Westerfield
36
42
30
73
5
29
56
25
8
22
41
54
Undecided
22
21
24
17
15
37
20
12
16
34
18
9
Total
100
48
52
39
39
20
42
31
20
40
38
13


Age
Race

18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
White
Black
Beshear
40
30
43
54
41
75
Westerfield
32
40
38
30
38
10
Undecided
28
40
19
16
21
15
Total
20
30
30
20
89
6

SECRETARY OF STATE
If the election for Secretary of State were held today, would you vote for Republican Steve Knipper, Democrat Allison Lundergan Grimes, or are you undecided? [Names Rotated]


Gender
Party Id
Ideology
Income

All
Men
Women
Rep
Dem
Ind
Con
Mod
Lib
<50
50<100
100+
Grimes
46
43
50
8
86
46
26
57
82
50
46
54
Knipper
35
40
31
67
6
33
54
23
8
26
40
34
Undecided
19
17
19
25
8
21
10
20
10
24
14
12
Total
100
48
52
39
39
20
42
31
20
40
38
13


Age
Race

18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
White
Black
Grimes
48
38
47
56
44
80
Knipper
29
38
39
24
37
6
Undecided
23
24
14
20
19
14
Total
20
30
30
20
89
6

AUDITOR
If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Republican Mike Harmon, Democrat Adam Edelen, or are you undecided? [Names Rotated]


Gender
Party Id
Ideology
Income

All
Men
Women
Rep
Dem
Ind
Con
Mod
Lib
<50
50<100
100+
Edelen
40
39
42
13
76
28
22
46
78
38
41
47
Harmon
35
39
30
69
2
26
55
24
4
32
37
30
Undecided
25
22
28
18
22
46
23
30
18
30
22
23
Total
100
48
52
39
39
20
42
31
20
40
38
13


Age
Race

18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
White
Black
Edelen
38
42
49
49
39
69
Harmon
36
32
23
23
36
10
Undecided
26
26
28
28
25
21
Total
20
30
30
20
89
6

TREASURER
If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Republican Allison Ball, Democrat Rick Nelson, or are you undecided? [Names Rotated]


Gender
Party Id
Ideology
Income

All
Men
Women
Rep
Dem
Ind
Con
Mod
Lib
<50
50<100
100+
Ball
37
43
30
70
60
29
58
27
5
33
39
36
Nelson
32
32
31
4
6
36
15
38
62
36
32
31
Undecided
31
25
39
26
32
35
27
35
33
31
29
33
Total
100
48
52
39
39
20
42
31
20
40
38
13


Age
Race

18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
White
Black
Ball
37
40
48
58
38
14
Nelson
35
28
40
30
30
51
Undecided
28
32
5
8
32
35
Total
20
30
30
20
89
6

AGRICULTURE COMMISSIONER
If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Republican Ryan Quarles, Democrat Jean-Marie Lawson Spann, or are you undecided? [Names Rotated]


Gender
Party Id
Ideology
Income

All
Men
Women
Rep
Dem
Ind
Con
Mod
Lib
<50
50<100
100+
Quarles
37
41
31
67
8
31
56
25
6
30
38
37
Spann
33
29
32
3
61
27
17
30
63
33
33
33
Undecided
30
30
37
30
31
42
27
45
31
37
29
30
Total
100
48
52
39
39
20
42
31
20
40
38
13


Age
Race

18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
White
Black
Quarles
40
35
38
27
38
6
Spann
33
24
30
39
29
49
Undecided
27
31
32
34
33
45
Total
20
30
30
20
89
6

PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Do you consider yourself to be a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

Democrat                                                        39%
Independent                                                    20%
Republican                                                      39%
Not Sure                                                            2%

IDEOLOGY
Do you consider yourself to be a liberal, moderate, or conservative?

Liberal                                                             20%
Moderate                                                         31%
Conservative                                                   42%
Refused                                                             7%

GENDER
What is your gender?

Male                                                                48%
Female                                                             52%

EDUCATION
What is the highest level of formal education you completed?

Less Than High School                                     2%
Some High School                                            3%
High School Graduate/GED                           23%
Vocational/Technical School                            6%
Some College                                                  21%
College Degree                                                30%
Post-Graduate Degree                                     15%

RACE
Would you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American, Asian American, Biracial, or something else?

White                                                              89%
African-American                                             6%
Hispanic                                                            3%
Other                                                                 2%

AGE
What is your age?

18-34                                                               20%
35-49                                                               30%
50-64                                                               30%
65+                                                                  20%

INCOME
Is your annual household income less than 25,000; 25,000 to less than 50,000; 50,000 to less than 75,000; 75,000 to less than 100,000; 100,000 or more?

Less than 25,000                                             12%
25,000 to <50,000                                           28%
50,000 to <75,000                                           25%
75,000 to <100,000                                         13%
100,000 or more                                              13%
Refused                                                           9%