Monday, October 26, 2015

Conway leads Bevin by 5 points in the latest Big Red Poll



THE BIG RED POLL

The 2015 Gubernatorial Race in Kentucky

October 19-25, 2015

Dr. Joel Turner
Director, WKU Social Science Research Center

  
Executive Summary

BIG RED POLL
The WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 770 likely Kentucky voters between October 19-October 25, 2015.  70% of respondents were reached via land line, and 30% were reached via cell phone.  The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%. 

GUBERNATORIAL RACE
According to the latest Big Red Poll, Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway leads Republican Matt Bevin 45% - 40% among likely Kentucky voters.  7% indicated support for Independent candidate Drew Curtis, and 8% indicated that they are still undecided. 

Among Democrats Conway leads Bevin 85%-5%, and among liberals Conway leads 84%-6%.  Republicans, Bevin leads Conway 80%-12%, and among conservatives Bevin leads 65%-23%.  Conway leads among independents by a margin of 40%-30% and moderate voters 60%-26%.  There is also evidence of a gender gap in Kentucky.  Conway leads among female voters (51%-34%), while Bevin leads among male voters (46%-41%).

FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Voters are largely mixed with regard to how they view the candidates for governor.  35% have a favorable view of Jack Conway, as opposed to 28% who have an unfavorable view.  33% have a favorable view of Matt Bevin, as opposed to 36% who have an unfavorable view.  The majority of respondents are either neutral toward (29%) or have no opinion on (57%) Drew Curtis. 

APPROVAL RATINGS
Governor Beshear
Respondents were asked whether they approved or disapproved of the job performance of both Governor Beshear, President Obama, and Congress.  Kentuckians indicated they were satisfied with the current governor, as 59% approved of the job he was doing, while only 25% disapproved of his job performance.  Conway leads among those who approve of Governor Beshear’s job performance by a 67%-23% margin.  Bevin leads among those who disapprove of Beshear 72%-12%.

President Obama
Kentuckians indicated they were not very satisfied with the performance of the President, as only 35% indicated they approved of the job President Obama was doing, while 60% indicated they disapproved of the job President Obama is doing.  Those who disapprove of the job President Obama is doing are more likely to vote for Matt Bevin (64%).  Those who approve of the job President Obama is doing said they are more likely to vote for Conway (85%).

Congress
Kentuckians also indicated strong dissatisfaction with the performance of Congress.  Only 8% indicated they approved of the job Congress is doing, while 84% indicated they disapproved with the job Congress is doing.  Conway leads Bevin irrespective of whether the respondent approves (42%-39%) or disapproves (47%-39%) of the job Congress is doing.

TEA PARTY
9% of those surveyed self-identified as members of the TEA Party.  Additionally, 25% of those who did not self-identify indicated that they were sympathetic to the views expressed by the TEA Party.  Not surprisingly, Bevin has done well among both groups, as he leads Conway 75%-14% among self-described TEA Party members, and 68%-16% among those who consider themselves to be sympathetic to the cause of the TEA Party.

ABOUT THE WKU SSRC
The WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology, and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person interviews.  For the latest news on what is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) or follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC).




GUBERNATORIAL RACE
If the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Republican Matt Bevin, Democrat Jack Conway, Independent Drew Curtis, or are you undecided? [Names Rotated]


Gender
Party Id
Ideology
Income

All
Men
Women
Rep
Dem
Ind
Con
Mod
Lib
<50
50<100
100+
Conway
45
41
51
12
85
40
23
60
84
46
44
53
Bevin
40
46
34
80
5
29
65
26
6
33
46
41
Curtis
7
6
7
5
4
13
3
10
5
8
5
2
Undecided
8
7
9
4
6
18
9
5
5
13
5
3
Total
100
48
52
39
39
20
42
31
20
40
38
13


Age
Race

18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
White
Black
Conway
41
40
48
58
45
82
Bevin
38
48
40
30
41
6
Curtis
11
4
7
5
8
4
Undecided
10
8
5
8
6
8
Total
20
30
30
20
89
6

FAVORABILITY
Please indicate whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, neutral, or no opinion on each of the following politicians [Names Rotated]

                                   Favorable      Unfavorable           Neutral        Not Enough Info
Jack Conway                  35%                   28%                   23%                   14%
Matt Bevin                     33%                   36%                   15%                   16%
Drew Curtis                     6%                     8%                    29%                   57%

APPROVAL BESHEAR
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Steve Beshear is doing as governor?

Approve                                                          59%
Disapprove                                                      25%
DK/Refused                                                    16%

APPROVAL PRESIDENT
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

Approve                                                          35%
Disapprove                                                      60%
DK/Refused                                                      5%

APPROVAL CONGRESS
Do you approve or disapprove or the job Congress is doing?

Approve                                                            8%
Disapprove                                                      84%
DK/Refused                                                      8%

TEA PARTY 1
Do you consider yourself to be a member of the TEA Party?

Yes                                                                    9%
No                                                                   91%

TEA PARTY 2
(If not a member) Do you consider yourself to be sympathetic to the goals of the TEA Party?

Yes                                                                  26%
No                                                                   54%
Not Sure                                                          20%

PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Do you consider yourself to be a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

Democrat                                                        39%
Independent                                                    20%
Republican                                                      39%
Not Sure                                                            2%

IDEOLOGY
Do you consider yourself to be a liberal, moderate, or conservative?

Liberal                                                             20%
Moderate                                                         31%
Conservative                                                   42%
Refused                                                             7%

GENDER
What is your gender?

Male                                                                48%
Female                                                             52%

EDUCATION
What is the highest level of formal education you completed?

Less Than High School                                     2%
Some High School                                            3%
High School Graduate/GED                           23%
Vocational/Technical School                            6%
Some College                                                  21%
College Degree                                               30%
Post-Graduate Degree                                     15%

RACE
Would you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American, Asian American, Biracial, or something else?

White                                                              89%
African-American                                             6%
Hispanic                                                            3%
Other                                                                 2%

AGE
What is your age?

18-34                                                               20%
35-49                                                               30%
50-64                                                               30%
65+                                                                  20%

INCOME
Is your annual household income less than 25,000; 25,000 to less than 50,000; 50,000 to less than 75,000; 75,000 to less than 100,000; 100,000 or more?

Less than 25,000                                             12%
25,000 to <50,000                                           28%
50,000 to <75,000                                           25%
75,000 to <100,000                                         13%
100,000 or more                                              13%
Refused                                                             9%

RELIGIOSITY
Aside from weddings and funerals, how often do you attend religious services... more than once a week, once a week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, seldom, or never?

More than once a week                                   18%
Once A Week                                                  30%
Once Or Twice A Month                                18%
A Few Times A Year                                      10%
Seldom                                                            15%
Never                                                                9%

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