2014 Big Red Poll

THE BIG RED POLL

The 2014 U.S. Senate Race in Kentucky

October 6-19, 2014

Dr. Joel Turner

Director, WKU Social Science Research Center

Executive Summary

MIDTERM ELECTION SURVEY

The WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 601 registered Kentucky voters between October 6-October 20, 2014.  The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4%. 

U.S. SENATE RACE 

According to the latest Big Red Poll, Republican Senator Mitch McConnell leads Democratic challenger Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes 45% - 40% among registered Kentucky voters.  Just over 5% indicated support for Libertarian candidate David Patterson, and nearly 10% indicated that they are still undecided.  McConnell also has nearly a 4 point lead over Grimes among likely voters (those who indicated they were definitely going to vote in the upcoming election) 45.4%-41.7%.  Just over 5% of this group indicated that they support Patterson, and nearly 8% indicated they are undecided.

Both candidates are doing well among their respective partisan and ideological groups.  Among Republicans, McConnell leads Grimes 85%-7%, and among conservatives McConnell lead 73%-16%.  Conversely, among Democrats Grimes leads McConnell 80%-13%, and among liberals Grimes leads 73%-17%.  McConnell leads among independents by a margin of 39%-35%, while Grimes leads among moderate voters 48%-36%.  There is also evidence of a gender gap in Kentucky.  Grimes leads among female voters (51%-36%), while McConnell leads among male voters (55%-33%).

A fascinating element of this campaign is the strong evidence of protest support among the candidates.  Respondents were asked if they were voting for the candidate of their choice because they supported that candidate or opposed the opposition.  Stark differences between the candidates emerged here.  The majority of those voting for McConnell (62%) indicated support for the Senator as their reason for voting for him.  In contrast, the majority of those backing Grimes (60%) indicated opposition to McConnell as motivating their support for her.

APPROVAL RATINGS

President Obama

Respondents were asked whether they approved or disapproved of the job performance of both President Obama and Congress.  Kentuckians indicated they were not very satisfied with the performance of the President, as only 30% indicated they approved of the job President Obama was doing, while 65% indicated they disapproved of the job President Obama is doing.  Those who disapprove of the job President Obama is doing are more likely to vote for Mitch McConnell (63%).  Those who approve of the job President Obama is doing said they are more likely to vote for Grimes (84%).

Congress

Kentuckians also indicated strong dissatisfaction with the performance of Congress.  Only 14% indicated they approved of the job Congress is doing, while 80% indicated they disapproved with the job Congress is doing.  McConnell leads Grimes irrespective of whether the respondent approves (51%-37%) or disapproves (45%-40%) of the job Congress is doing.

FAVORABILITY RATINGS

Respondents were asked to provide favorability ratings for several national and state political figures.  Those survey were relatively split on Senator McConnell, as 44% had a favorable view of him and 51% had an unfavorable view of him.  38% had a favorable view of Secretary Grimes, while 47% had an unfavorable view of her.  Perhaps most surprising was that 15% of respondents indicated that they did not have enough information to make an evaluation of Grimes.  This suggests that Grimes still has work to do introducing herself to voters, or perhaps that the McConnell camp has been successful in their attempts to define who she is.  With regard to other figures, President Obama had favorability/unfavorability ratings of 36%-62%, Senator Paul had a favorability/unfavorability rating of 50%-37%, and Gov. Steve Beshear continues to be the most popular politician in the state, as he has a favorability rating of 55%-33%.

ISSUES

Most Important Issue

Respondents were asked a variety of issue questions.  They were asked to identify what they thought was the most important issue facing the U.S.  The top three (in order) were:  the economy (29%), jobs (17%), and international affairs (16%).  They were also asked specific questions about the economy, Obamacare, immigration, and the minimum wage. 

Economy

Respondents were split about the state of the national economy, as roughly 41% thought the economy had gotten better over the last year, 40% thought it had gotten worse, and 19% thought it was about the same.  McConnell leads among those who think the economy has gotten worse (61%-19%) or stayed the same (62%-27%) over the past year, while Grimes leads among those who think the economy has gotten better over the last year (72%-18%).

Immigration

Respondents were also split on whether the focus of immigration policy should be stopping the flow of illegal immigrants (50.4%) or dealing with those already here (49.6%).  McConnell leads among those who think the priority should be stopping the flow of illegal immigrants (61%-28%), while Grimes leads among those who think the priority should be dealing with those already here (54%-32%).  Respondents were also asked what should be done about those already in the country illegally.  A majority did indicate support for allowing those already here to stay and become citizens (48%) as opposed to letting them stay without citizenship (37%) or be forced to leave the country (15%).  Grimes leads among those who support allowing illegals already here to apply for citizenship (55%-32%), while McConnell leads among those who support allowing them to stay without citizenship (65%-29%) and those who support deportation (61%-26%).

Obamacare/ACA

Obamacare remains unpopular in the state.  When asked what effect they thought the law would have on healthcare in Kentucky, 50% felt the law would make things worse, while only 32% thought it would make things better and 14% didn’t think the law would make a difference.  Not surprisingly, McConnell leads among those who think the law will make things worse (77%-11%) and Grimes leads among those who think the law will make things better (76%-11%).

Minimum Wage

Finally, respondents were asked about a minimum wage increase.  Kentuckians overwhelmingly support a minimum wage increase in Kentucky (59%-36%).  Grimes leads among those who support increasing the minimum wage (62%-24%), and McConnell leads among those who oppose an increase (69%-15%). 

TEA PARTY

13% of those surveyed self-identified as members of the TEA Party.  Additionally, nearly a third (32%) of those who did not self-identify indicated that they were sympathetic to the views expressed by the TEA Party.  Despite concerns about McConnell’s level of support among the TEA Party, he appears to have done well with regard to shoring up support from both groups, as he leads Grimes 87%-5% among self-described TEA Party members, and 70%-21% among those who consider themselves to be sympathetic to the cause of the TEA Party.

ATTITUDES ABOUT GOVERNMENT

Finally, attitudes about government are mixed in the Commonwealth.  An overwhelming majority of respondents (83%) felt that things in this country have gotten off on the wrong track. 60% of those surveyed indicated a belief that government was trying to do too many things that should be left to businesses and individuals, 63% expressed skepticism about the federal government’s ability to solve federal problems, and 80% thought that the federal government should only do things that cannot be handled at the state level.  However, respondents expressed far more confidence in the ability of state government (74%) and local government (73%) to handle state and local problems, respectively.

METHODOLOGY

The mode of data collection used for this survey is live interviewer RDD telephone interviews.  A dual frame approach was used, which included a random sample of both cell phones and landlines.  The sample for this survey was acquired from Survey Sampling International.  The survey was in the field from October 6-19, 2014.  The sample size was 601, which produced a margin of error of +/- 4%.  Calls were made from Monday through Friday from 4-8 PM, and from 1-5 PM on weekends.  Additional questions regarding methodology can be directed to Dr. Joel Turner at joel.turner@wku.edu.

ABOUT THE WKU SSRC

The WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology, and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person interviews.  For the latest news on what is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) or follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC).

SENATE RACE

If the election for Senate were held today, would you vote for Republican Mitch McConnell, Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes, Libertarian David Patterson, or are you undecided? [Rotate names]

		Gender		Party Id			Ideology			Income
	All	Men	Women	Rep	Dem	Ind	Con	Mod	Lib	<50	50<100	100+
McConnell	45	55	36	85	13	39	73	37	17	38	56	52
Lundergan-Grimes	40	34	51	7	80	35	16	48	73	43	35	43
Patterson	5	5	4	3	3	11	6	6	5	7	3	7
Undecided	10	6	9	5	5	15	5	11	5	13	6	2
Total	100	56	44	34	35	27	37	39	18	57	33	9

		Age				Race
	LV	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	White	Black
McConnell	45	38	49	51	47	53	15
Lundergan-Grimes	42	46	39	37	44	35	79
Patterson	5	6	4	3	4	4	0
Undecided	8	9	8	8	5	8	7
Total	93	24	30	30	15	80	12

VOTE

Do you plan to vote in the 2014 election?

Yes                                                                  93%

No                                                                     5%

Not Sure                                                            2%

PROTEST VOTE

[If voting for McConnell] Are you voting that way because you support Mitch McConnell or oppose Alison Lundergan Grimes?

Support McConnell                                         62%

Oppose Grimes                                               33%

DK/Refused                                                      5%

[If voting for Grimes] Are you voting that way because you support Alison Lundergan Grimes or oppose Mitch McConnell?

Support Grimes                                               34%

Oppose McConnell                                         60%

DK/Refused                                                     6%

APPROVAL PRESIDENT

Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

Strongly Approve                                             5%

Approve                                                          25%

Disapprove                                                      24%

Strongly Disapprove                                       42%

DK/Refused                                                      4%

APPROVAL CONGRESS

Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove, or strongly disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as President?

Strongly Approve                                             1%

Approve                                                          12%

Disapprove                                                      40%

Strongly Disapprove                                       40%

DK/Refused                                                     7%

IMPORTANT ISSUE

What is the most important issue in the United States? [open ended]

Economy                                                         29%

Jobs                                                                 17%

International Affairs/Defense                         17%

Healthcare/Obamacare                                    12%

Immigration                                                      5%

Poverty/Welfare                                                5%

God/Religion/Morality                                     4%

Education                                                          3%

Budget/Debt                                                      3%

Environment/Energy                                         1%

DK/Refused                                                      4%

FAVORABILITY

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view of the following politicians?

                                                Favorable              Unfavorable           Not Enough Info

Mitch McConnell                        44%                        51%                              5%

Alison Lundergan Grimes           38%                        47%                             15%

Barack Obama                             36%                        62%                               2%

Rand Paul                                    50%                        37%                              13%

Steve Beshear                              56%                        32%                              12%

RIGHT TRACK/WRONG TRACK

Do you think things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

Right Track                                                     13%

Wrong Track                                                   83%

Not Sure                                                            4%

ECONOMY

Would you say that over the past year the nation's economy has gotten a lot better, a little better, stayed about the same, or gotten a little worse, or gotten a lot worse?

A Lot Better                                                     7%

A Little Better                                                34%

Stayed About the Same                                  19%

A Little Worse                                                23%

A Lot Worse                                                   17%

MINIMUM WAGE

Do you strongly support, support, oppose, or strongly oppose raising the minimum wage?

Strongly Support                                             27%

Support                                                           32%

Oppose                                                            20%

Strongly Oppose                                             16%

Not Sure                                                            5%

OBAMACARE/ACA

Do you think the Affordable Care Act, often referred to as Obamacare, will make the healthcare situation in Kentucky better, worse, or not make much difference?

Make Things Better                                        32%

Not Make Much Difference                           14%

Make Things Worse                                        50%

No Opinion/Refused                                         4%

IMMIGRATION/FOCUS

If you had to choose, what should be the main focus of U.S. immigration policy: halting the flow of illegal immigrants, or deal with those that are in the U.S. illegally?

Halting The Flow Of Illegal Immigrants        50%

Dealing With Those Here Illegally                 50%

IMMIGRATION/PLAN

Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are living in the U.S.? They should be allowed to stay in the U.S. and apply for citizenship, they should be allowed to stay in the U.S. but not apply for citizenship, or they should be required to leave the U.S.

Stay And Apply For Citizenship                    48%                

Stay But Not Become A Citizen                    15%

Leave The Country                                         37%

TRUST IN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

How much trust and confidence do you have in the federal government when it comes to handling federal problems: A great deal, a fair amount, not very much, none at all?

A Great Deal                                                     8%

A Fair Amount                                                29%

Not Very Much                                               44%

None At All                                                    19%

TRUST IN STATE GOVERNMENT

How much trust and confidence do you have in the state government when it comes to handling state problems: A great deal, a fair amount, not very much, none at all?

A Great Deal                                                   13%

A Fair Amount                                                61% 

Not Very Much                                               20%

None At All                                                      6%

TRUST IN LOCAL GOVERNMENT

How much trust and confidence do you have in your local government when it comes to handling local problems: A great deal, a fair amount, not very much, none at all?

A Great Deal                                                   22%

A Fair Amount                                                51%

Not Very Much                                               20%

None At All                                                      7%

FEDERALISM

Do you strongly agree, agree, disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statement:  The federal government should only run those problems that cannot be handled at the state level.

Strongly Agree                                                47%

Agree                                                               33%

Disagree                                                          10%

Strongly Disagree                                           10%

TEA PARTY 1

Do you consider yourself to be a member of the TEA Party?

Yes                                                                  13%

No                                                                   87%

TEA PARTY 2

(If not a member) Do you consider yourself to be sympathetic to the goals of the TEA Party?

Yes                                                                  32%

No                                                                   51%

Not Sure                                                          17%

PARTY IDENTIFICATION

Do you consider yourself to be a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

Democrat                                                        35%

Independent                                                    27%

Republican                                                      35%

Not Sure                                                            3%

IDEOLOGY

Do you consider yourself to be a liberal, moderate, or conservative?

Liberal                                                             19%

Moderate                                                         39%

Conservative                                                   37%

Refused                                                             5%

GENDER

What is your gender?

Male                                                                56%

Female                                                             44%

EDUCATION

What is the highest level of formal education you completed?

Less Than High School                                     2%

Some High School                                            3%

High School Graduate/GED                           23%

Vocational/Technical School                            6%

Some College                                                  21%

College Degree                                               30%

Post-Graduate Degree                                     15%

RACE

Would you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American, Asian American, Biracial, or something else?

White                                                               81%

African-American                                           12%

Hispanic                                                            3%

Biracial                                                              3%

Other                                                                 1%

AGE

What is your age?

18-34                                                               25%

35-49                                                               30%

50-64                                                               30%

65+                                                                  15%

INCOME

Is your annual household income less than 25,000; 25,000 to less than 50,000; 50,000 to less than 75,000; 75,000 to less than 100,000; 100,000 or more?

Less than 25,000                                             13%

25,000 to <50,000                                           28%

50,000 to <75,000                                           25%

75,000 to <100,000                                         14%

100,000 or more                                              11%

Refused                                                           10%

RELIGIOSITY

Aside from weddings and funerals, how often do you attend religious services... more than once a week, once a week, once or twice a month, a few times a year, seldom, or never?

More than once a week                                   17%

Once A Week                                                 30%

Once Or Twice A Month                                17%

A Few Times A Year                                      12%

Seldom                                                            16%

Never                                                                8%