Monday, February 29, 2016

Trump Leads Competitors By Double Digits In Upcoming Kentucky Republican Caucus






REPUBLICAN CAUCUS SURVEY
The WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 532 likely Republican Caucus participants in Kentucky between February 22-26, 2016.  The sample consisted of registered Republicans in Kentucky, and likely participants were defined as those indicated a likelihood of participating in the caucus of at least a 7 on a 10 point scale.  68% of respondents were reached via land line, and 32% were reached via cell phone.  The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.25%. 

PRESIDENTIAL RACE
According to the latest Big Red Poll, Donald Trump leads the Republican field for President among likely Kentucky Caucus participants with 35%.  Trump’s closest competitor, Sen. Marco Rubio, comes in at 22%, with 15% of likely caucus participants indicating that they are still undecided. 

In descending order, likely Kentucky Republican Caucus participants support:

Donald Trump             35%
Marco Rubio               22%
Ted Cruz                      15%
Ben Carson                   7%
Johh Kasich                   6%

BROAD IDEOLOGICAL APPEAL
Respondents were asked to self-identify as moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative.  23% identified as moderate, 36% identified as somewhat conservative, and 39% identified as very conservative.  Trump leads across all three categories, polling at 40% among moderates, 34% among those who identify as somewhat conservative, and 33% among those who identify as very conservative.  Rubio polls in 2nd place across each ideological category.

FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Respondents had a different take on the candidates when asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable view of each candidate.  Trump finished third here, with Ben Carson leading the pack.  Here are the results in descending order:

Ben Carson                 68% Favorable, 17% Unfavorable, 15% Not Sure
Marco Rubio               58% Favorable, 32% Unfavorable, 10% Not Sure
Donald Trump             53% Favorable, 45% Unfavorable,   2% Not Sure
Ted Cruz                     51% Favorable, 41% Unfavorable,   8% Not Sure
John Kasich                 47% Favorable, 27% Unfavorable, 26% Not Sure

CHOOSING A CANDIDATE
Respondents were asked which of the following mattered most to them when choosing a candidate:  experience, character, electability, shared religious values, common political ideology, telling it like it is, or something else.  26% indicated that character was the most important factor, and among that group Rubio was the runaway winner with 46% support.  22% indicated that a common ideology was most important, with Ted Cruz having the most support among those respondents (31%).  18% indicated that “telling it like it is” was the most important attribute, and Trump was the runaway winner in this category with 94% support.  13% thought experience was important, and Trump leads among this group at 44%.  9% indicated shared religious values, and 8 percent indicated “something else”, with Ted Cruz leading each of these categories (39% and 30% respectively).  Perhaps most surprisingly, only 4% of respondents were concerned about electability.  Votes in this category were evenly distributed among all candidates.

FEELINGS ABOUT GOVERNMENT
Respondents were asked whether they were content with, frustrated with, or angry at government.  The general theme this question engendered was dissatisfaction, as 57% indicated frustration, 31% indicated anger, while only 5% indicated contentment.  Trump is doing very well among those who indicate frustration (40%) and has a slight lead among those who are angry (27%).  Support among those who are content is distributed pretty evenly between Kasich and Carson (29% each).

IMPORTANT ISSUE
Respondents were asked what they thought the most important issue facing the country was.  As is usually the case, jobs and the economy topped the list (46%).  19% of respondents indicated terrorism, while 11% either government spending or the economy.  Trump leads his competitors across all of these categories.  He has 41% support among those expressing economic concerns, 40% among those who are concerned about immigration, 36% among those with terrorism concerns, and 28% among those concerned about government spending.  He outpaces his nearest competitor in the economic and immigration categories (Rubio and Cruz respectively) by a nearly 2 to 1 margin.  He lead is within the margin of error in terrorism and spending categories (Rubio and Cruz respectively). 

PC BACKLASH
The findings of this poll support the supposition that Trump is tapping into the frustration some have with a society they believe is too politically correct.  83% of respondents believed that most people in America were “afraid to truly say what they think for fear of offending someone.”  Among this group, Trump leads with nearly 40%. 

MUSLIM BAN
62% of respondents support a temporary ban on non-US citizen Muslims from entering the country.  Among this group, Trump leads with nearly 48%.

IMMIGRANT CONCERNS
60% of those surveyed indicated that they believed immigrants were taking jobs away from U.S. citizens.  Among this group, Trump lead with roughly 43%.

EVANGELICALS
61% of respondents considered themselves to be “born again”, or evangelical, Christians.  Among this group, Trump leads Rubio by 10 points (36%-26%).  An additional 17% considered themselves to be Christian, but not necessarily evangelical.  Among this group Trump leads his nearest competitor by a 2 to 1 margin. 

TEA PARTY
24% of those surveyed self-identified as members of the TEA Party.  Additionally, 47% of those who did not self-identify indicated that they were sympathetic to the views expressed by the TEA Party.  Trump has done well among both groups, as he leads his nearest competitor, Ben Carson, 31%-21% among self-described TEA Party members, and leads Rubio 41%-29% among those who consider themselves to be sympathetic to the cause of the TEA Party.

ABOUT THE WKU SSRC
The WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology, and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person interviews.  For the latest news on what is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) or follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC).

 PRESIDENTIAL RACE
If the Republican Caucus for President were held today, would you vote for Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Ben Carson, or are you undecided? [Names Rotated]


Gender
Evangelical
Ideology
Income

All
Men
Women
Yes
No
NEC
Mod
SC
VC
<50
50<100
100+
Trump
35
39
30
36
36
35
40
34
33
52
26
29
Rubio
22
16
29
26
16
17
18
29
23
18
31
25
Cruz
15
17
13
13
26
17
13
10
19
12
18
13
Kasich
6
7
6
4
1
13
11
4
2
1
7
6
Carson
7
7
6
6
1
9
10
5
6
7
7
1
Undecided
15
13
16
16
19
9
6
18
16
11
13
27


Age
Education

18-34
35-49
50-64
65+
HS Grad
College Grad
Trump
22
46
30
42
38
32
Rubio
24
21
17
27
25
23
Cruz
17
10
22
11
12
13
Kasich
13
4
1
7
4
7
Carson
8
4
6
7
5
10
Undecided
16
14
24
7
16
15

FAVORABILITY
Please indicate whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, neutral, or no opinion on each of the following politicians [Names Rotated]

                                    Favorable         Unfavorable                Not Enough Info
Ben Carson                      68%                   17%                                  15%
Marco Rubio                   58%                    32%                                  10%
Donald Trump                 53%                    45%                                   2%
Ted Cruz                          51%                    41%                                   8%
John Kasich                     47%                    27%                                  26%

IDEOLOGY
Do you consider yourself to be moderate, somewhat conservative, or very conservative?

Liberal                                                             23%
Moderate                                                         36%
Conservative                                                   39%
Not Sure                                                            2%

TEA PARTY 1
Do you consider yourself to be a member of the TEA Party?

Yes                                                                  24%
No                                                                   76%

TEA PARTY 2
(If not a member) Do you consider yourself to be sympathetic to the goals of the TEA Party?

Yes                                                                  47%
No                                                                   30%
Not Sure                                                          23%
  
MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE
What issue matters most to you? Immigration reform? Jobs and the economy? Terrorism? Government spending?  Or something else?

Immigration                                                     11%
Jobs/Economy                                                 46%
Terrorism                                                         19%
Spending                                                          11%

CANDIDATE CHARACTERISTICS
What matters most to you when choosing a candidate for President? Is it experience, character, electability, shared religious values, common political ideology, telling it like it is, or something else?

Experience                                                       13%
Character                                                         26%
Electability                                                         4%
Shared Religious Views                                     9%
Common Ideology                                           18%
Telling it Like it is                                            22%
Something Else                                                  8%

FEELINGS ABOUT GOVERNMENT
Some people say they are basically content with the federal government, others say they are frustrated, and others say they are angry.  Which of these best describes how you feel?

Content                                                             5%
Frustrated                                                        57%
Angry                                                              31%
Not sure                                                             7%

POLITICAL CORRECTNESS
Do you believe that most people in America are afraid to say what they truly think for fear that someone might say that they are offended?
Yes                                                                  83%
No                                                                   12%
Not sure                                                             5%
  
IMMIGRANTS
Do you believe that immigrants take jobs away from American citizens?

Yes                                                                  59%
No                                                                   22%
Not sure                                                          19%

MUSLIM BAN
Do you support or oppose a temporary ban on Muslims who are not US citizens from entering the country?

Support                                                           62%
Oppose                                                            24%
Not sure                                                          14%
  
GENDER
What is your gender?

Male                                                                56%
Female                                                             44%

EDUCATION
What is the highest level of formal education you completed?

Less Than High School                                     4%
Some High School                                            2%
High School Graduate/GED                            25%
Vocational/Technical School                           12%
Some College                                                  19%
College Degree                                                23%
Post-Graduate Degree                                     13%
 
RACE
Would you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American, Asian American, Biracial, or something else?

White                                                              90%
African-American                                             3%
Hispanic                                                            5%
Other                                                                 2%

AGE
What is your age?

18-34                                                               27%
35-49                                                               21%
50-64                                                               23%
65+                                                                  29%
  
INCOME
Is your annual household income less than 25,000; 25,000 to less than 50,000; 50,000 to less than 75,000; 75,000 to less than 100,000; 100,000 or more?

Less than 25,000                                               8%
25,000 to <50,000                                           23%
50,000 to <75,000                                           26%
75,000 to <100,000                                         14%
100,000 or more                                              13%
Refused                                                           16%

EVANGELICAL
Would you describe yourself as an evangelical, or “born again”, Christian?

Yes                                                                  61%
No                                                                   15%
Christian but not evangelical                          17%
Not Sure                                                            7%

6 comments:

  1. The ├žountry has to change. I voted for Trump, He is the only one that has made life better for many hard working people. What he did with his company, he will do for the USA.

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    Replies
    1. Trump will surprise everyone and be very presidential. He is learning how to be a politician. His family and employees love him. Everyone who hated him, after talking to him one on one, say he is very nice. He will create jobs, build a wall to protect the US from the undesirables that Mexico doesn't want, especially the drugs. He will fortify the military and show some muscle and negotiating skills with countries who aren't our allies. He will examine the refugees coming in with a fine tooth comb rather than let them in without screening them properly.

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    2. You guys are being snowed....I'll vote for him in the general because Hillary and Bernie are awful, but Donald Trump is only about Donald Trump.

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    3. What he did for his company? You mean repeatedly bankrupt it?

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    4. Trump could be concentrating on his successful businesses, his golf, his large family. He is running for president out of selfless reasons. America is sinking and it's becoming dangerous, many people are unemployed that's not reported. Iran just got 150billion to build nuclear missiles that reach us.

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    5. Trump like other billionaires, have many businesses. Obviously, many of the business are highly successful, employing 1000s of people in the US and abroad. Out of all the business he, like other billionaires have some bankruptcies. These I believe occurred in Atlantic City, where many hotels went under. But, these shouldn't place a shadow on his billions of success.

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