THE BIG RED POLL
The 2015
Gubernatorial Race in Kentucky
October 19-25,
2015
Dr. Joel Turner
Director, WKU
Social Science Research Center
Executive Summary
BIG RED POLL
The
WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a
live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 770 likely Kentucky
voters between October 19-October 25, 2015.
70% of respondents were reached via land line, and 30% were reached via
cell phone. The survey has a margin of
error of +/- 3.5%.
GUBERNATORIAL RACE
According
to the latest Big Red Poll, Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway leads
Republican Matt Bevin 45% - 40% among likely Kentucky voters. 7% indicated support for Independent candidate
Drew Curtis, and 8% indicated that they are still undecided.
Among
Democrats Conway leads Bevin 85%-5%, and among liberals Conway leads
84%-6%. Republicans, Bevin leads Conway
80%-12%, and among conservatives Bevin leads 65%-23%. Conway leads among independents by a margin
of 40%-30% and moderate voters 60%-26%. There
is also evidence of a gender gap in Kentucky.
Conway leads among female voters (51%-34%), while Bevin leads among male
voters (46%-41%).
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Voters
are largely mixed with regard to how they view the candidates for
governor. 35% have a favorable view of
Jack Conway, as opposed to 28% who have an unfavorable view. 33% have a favorable view of Matt Bevin, as
opposed to 36% who have an unfavorable view.
The majority of respondents are either neutral toward (29%) or have no
opinion on (57%) Drew Curtis.
APPROVAL RATINGS
Governor Beshear
Respondents
were asked whether they approved or disapproved of the job performance of both Governor
Beshear, President Obama, and Congress. Kentuckians
indicated they were satisfied with the current governor, as 59% approved of the
job he was doing, while only 25% disapproved of his job performance. Conway leads among those who approve of
Governor Beshear’s job performance by a 67%-23% margin. Bevin leads among those who disapprove of
Beshear 72%-12%.
President Obama
Kentuckians
indicated they were not very satisfied with the performance of the President,
as only 35% indicated they approved of the job President Obama was doing, while
60% indicated they disapproved of the job President Obama is doing. Those who disapprove of the job President
Obama is doing are more likely to vote for Matt Bevin (64%). Those who approve of the job President Obama
is doing said they are more likely to vote for Conway (85%).
Congress
Kentuckians
also indicated strong dissatisfaction with the performance of Congress. Only 8% indicated they approved of the job Congress
is doing, while 84% indicated they disapproved with the job Congress is
doing. Conway leads Bevin irrespective
of whether the respondent approves (42%-39%) or disapproves (47%-39%) of the
job Congress is doing.
TEA PARTY
9%
of those surveyed self-identified as members of the TEA Party. Additionally, 25% of those who did not
self-identify indicated that they were sympathetic to the views expressed by the
TEA Party. Not surprisingly, Bevin has
done well among both groups, as he leads Conway 75%-14% among self-described
TEA Party members, and 68%-16% among those who consider themselves to be
sympathetic to the cause of the TEA Party.
ABOUT THE WKU SSRC
The
WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a
coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology,
and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct
surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person
interviews. For the latest news on what
is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) or
follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC).
GUBERNATORIAL RACE
If
the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Republican Matt
Bevin, Democrat Jack Conway, Independent Drew Curtis, or are you undecided? [Names
Rotated]
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||||
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
Conway
|
45
|
41
|
51
|
12
|
85
|
40
|
23
|
60
|
84
|
46
|
44
|
53
|
Bevin
|
40
|
46
|
34
|
80
|
5
|
29
|
65
|
26
|
6
|
33
|
46
|
41
|
Curtis
|
7
|
6
|
7
|
5
|
4
|
13
|
3
|
10
|
5
|
8
|
5
|
2
|
Undecided
|
8
|
7
|
9
|
4
|
6
|
18
|
9
|
5
|
5
|
13
|
5
|
3
|
Total
|
100
|
48
|
52
|
39
|
39
|
20
|
42
|
31
|
20
|
40
|
38
|
13
|
Age
|
Race
|
|||||
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Black
|
|
Conway
|
41
|
40
|
48
|
58
|
45
|
82
|
Bevin
|
38
|
48
|
40
|
30
|
41
|
6
|
Curtis
|
11
|
4
|
7
|
5
|
8
|
4
|
Undecided
|
10
|
8
|
5
|
8
|
6
|
8
|
Total
|
20
|
30
|
30
|
20
|
89
|
6
|
FAVORABILITY
Please
indicate whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, neutral, or no opinion on
each of the following politicians [Names Rotated]
Favorable Unfavorable Neutral Not
Enough Info
Jack
Conway 35% 28% 23% 14%
Matt
Bevin 33% 36% 15% 16%
Drew
Curtis 6%
8% 29% 57%
APPROVAL BESHEAR
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Steve Beshear is doing as
governor?
Approve 59%
Disapprove 25%
DK/Refused 16%
APPROVAL PRESIDENT
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as
President?
Approve 35%
Disapprove 60%
DK/Refused 5%
APPROVAL CONGRESS
Do you approve or disapprove or the job Congress is doing?
Approve 8%
Disapprove 84%
DK/Refused
8%
TEA PARTY 1
Do
you consider yourself to be a member of the TEA Party?
Yes 9%
No 91%
TEA PARTY 2
(If
not a member) Do you consider yourself to be sympathetic to the goals of the
TEA Party?
Yes 26%
No 54%
Not
Sure 20%
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Do
you consider yourself to be a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
Democrat 39%
Independent 20%
Republican 39%
Not
Sure 2%
IDEOLOGY
Do
you consider yourself to be a liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Liberal 20%
Moderate 31%
Conservative 42%
Refused 7%
GENDER
What
is your gender?
Male 48%
Female 52%
EDUCATION
What
is the highest level of formal education you completed?
Less
Than High School 2%
Some
High School 3%
High
School Graduate/GED 23%
Vocational/Technical
School 6%
Some
College 21%
College
Degree 30%
Post-Graduate
Degree 15%
RACE
Would
you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American,
Asian American, Biracial, or something else?
White 89%
African-American 6%
Hispanic 3%
Other 2%
AGE
What
is your age?
18-34 20%
35-49 30%
50-64 30%
65+ 20%
INCOME
Is
your annual household income less than 25,000; 25,000 to less than 50,000;
50,000 to less than 75,000; 75,000 to less than 100,000; 100,000 or more?
Less
than 25,000 12%
25,000
to <50,000 28%
50,000
to <75,000 25%
75,000
to <100,000 13%
100,000
or more 13%
Refused
9%
RELIGIOSITY
Aside from weddings and funerals, how often do you attend religious
services... more than once a week, once a week, once or twice a month, a few
times a year, seldom, or never?
More
than once a week 18%
Once
A Week 30%
Once
Or Twice A Month 18%
A
Few Times A Year 10%
Seldom 15%
Never 9%
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