THE BIG RED POLL
Politics in
Kentucky
April 11-15, 2018
Dr. Joel Turner
Director, WKU
Social Science Research Center
SURVEY METHODOLOGY
The
WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a
student-led, live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 531 Kentucky
residents between April 11-15, 2018. 67%
of respondents were reached via land line, and 33% were reached via cell
phone. The survey has a margin of error
of +/- 4.2%.
DONALD TRUMP
45%
approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as President, 45% disapprove, and 10%
are undecided. 73% of Republicans
approve of the President, while only 23% of Democrats and 33% of Independents
approve of the job Trump is doing. Trump
has a 65% approval rating among conservatives, 42% approval among moderates,
and 16% approval among liberals.
MATT BEVIN
Only
32% of Kentuckians approve of the job Matt Bevin is doing as governor, while 56%
disapprove, and 12% are undecided. Bevin
has an approval rating of 45% among Republicans, 17% among Democrats, and 32%
among Independents. Bevin has a 46%
approval rating among conservatives, 25% approval among moderates, and 20%
approval among liberals.
KENTUCKY LEGISLATURE
Only
25% of Kentuckians approve of the job done by the Kentucky legislature. 58% disapprove, and 17% are undecided. The legislature has a 31% approval rating
among Republicans, 20% among Democrats, and 23% among Independents. The legislature has a 26% approval rating
among conservatives, 26% approval among moderates, and 19% approval among
liberals.
30%
of Kentuckians approve of the job Mitch McConnell is doing as Senator. 56%
disapprove, and 14% are undecided. He
has an approval rating of 37% among Republicans, 21% among Democrats, and 30%
among Independents. McConnell has a 28% approval rating among conservatives, 35%
approval among moderates, and 21% approval among liberals.
RAND PAUL
Among
state politicians we asked about Rand Paul has the highest approval rating at
45%. 42% of Kentuckians disapprove, and
13% are undecided. He has an approval
rating of 60% among Republicans, 23% among Democrats, and 55% among
Independents. Paul has a 60% approval rating among conservatives, 43% approval
among moderates, and 24% approval among liberals.
BIGGEST PROBLEM
Respondents
were asked to name the biggest problem currently facing Kentucky. The answer most commonly given was the
pension crisis (19%), followed by the opiod crisis (15%) and education
(10%). Of course, it is possible that at
least some of those mentioning education would have been referring to the
pension situation. No other problem
mentioned managed to reach double digits in terms of frequency.
PENSION CRISIS
We
asked a variety of questions regarding the pension crisis facing Kentucky. First, we asked respondents if they favored
Governor Bevin’s position, the teacher’s position, or if they were neutral
between the two. 53% expressed support
for the teachers, 16% expressed support for the Governor, and 20% indicated
neutrality. From a partisan standpoint,
support for the Governor’s position was highest among Republicans (28%), while
support for the teacher’s position exceeded 50% among Republicans, Democrats,
and Independents. Ideologically, support
for the Governor’s position is highest among conservatives (30%), while the
greatest support for teachers comes from liberals (75%).
Compounding
problems for the Governor, 62% disapproved of the manner in which he has
handled the pension issue, while only 29% approve of his handling of it. His highest level of approval came from
conservatives (43%) and Republicans (41%), while the greatest disapproval came
from liberals and Democrats (78% each).
We
also asked respondents about their level of support for tax increases,
marijuana legalization, and casino gambling as mechanism by which to address
the pension shortfall. Casino gambling
was the most popular option (56%). This option
was supported by 58% of Republican, 57% of Democrats, and 56% of
Independents. Marijuana legalization
(46%) was the second most popular option.
Marijuana legalization was supported by 51% of Democrats, 47% of
Independents, and 43% of Republicans. Tax increases, with only 29% support, was
the least popular option among Kentuckians.
In
the wake of recent teacher protests, we also asked if these demonstrations, and
accompanying school closings, made respondents more likely to support, less
likely to support, or had no impact on support for pension reform. The protests appear to have had the desired
effect, as 36% indicated it made them less likely to support pension
reform. 32% indicated that these actions
had no impact, and 18% indicated it made them more likely to support pension
reform. These protests also had a
positive impact across all partisan and ideological groups, as they made
conservatives (30%), moderates (37%), and liberals (48%) all less likely to
support pension reform.
During
the midst of the survey, the Governor made his controversial remarks regarding
children in Kentucky being sexually assaulted or otherwise harmed due to being
left at home unattended as a result of the teacher protest and corresponding
school cancellations. Although the
sample is not large enough to make broad claims regarding the impact of this,
we do have enough pre- and post-comment data to take a look at the general
impact of these remarks.
Roughly
a quarter of the sample was contacted after Bevin’s remarks. What we see is roughly a 7 point decline as
his approval before the remarks was 34%, while his approval after the remarks
was 27%. His disapproval rose from 55%
before his remarks to 60% after his remarks.
Although we do not have enough respondents pre- and post-remarks to
perform more nuanced analysis, it does appear that they did indeed negatively
impact his approval.
GUN POLICY
We
asked a variety of questions regarding gun policy in the wake of high profile
school shootings that have occurred in the U.S.
First, we asked respondents if they favored having an armed resource
officer at all public schools. This
proposal received overwhelming support from Kentuckians (70%). Support for this was bipartisan, as it was
supported by 78% of Republicans, 72% of Independents, and 63% of Democrats, and
crossed ideological lines, as it was supported by a majority of moderates,
liberals, and conservatives. Additionally,
63% of those in favor of this also supported a tax increase in order to pay for
it. Again, in each instance a majority
of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents demonstrated support for this
proposal.
Finally,
70% of respondents favored raising the minimum age to purchase an AR-15 from 18
to 21. This policy was supported by 79%
of Democrats, 73% of Independents, and 64% of Republicans. This proposal also received 82% support from
liberals, 79% support from moderates, and 62% from conservatives.
ABOUT THE WKU SSRC
The
WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a
coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology,
and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct
surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person
interviews. For the latest news on what
is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) or
follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC).
DONALD TRUMP
Do
you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as
President?
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||||
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
Approve
|
45
|
52
|
43
|
73
|
22
|
33
|
65
|
42
|
16
|
49
|
44
|
48
|
Disapprove
|
45
|
39
|
46
|
17
|
76
|
48
|
26
|
42
|
82
|
42
|
44
|
45
|
Not
sure/refused
|
10
|
9
|
11
|
10
|
2
|
19
|
19
|
18
|
2
|
10
|
12
|
8
|
Age
|
Race
|
Education
|
|||||||
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Non-White
|
HS
or less
|
College
|
Adv.
Degree
|
|
Approve
|
40
|
30
|
33
|
54
|
75
|
41
|
44
|
50
|
35
|
Disapprove
|
32
|
40
|
38
|
30
|
10
|
38
|
41
|
41
|
62
|
Not
sure/refused
|
28
|
40
|
19
|
16
|
15
|
10
|
15
|
19
|
3
|
MATT BEVIN
Do you
approve or disapprove of the way Matt Bevin is handling his job as Governor?
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||||
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
Approve
|
32
|
41
|
29
|
45
|
18
|
32
|
47
|
25
|
20
|
34
|
24
|
40
|
Disapprove
|
56
|
54
|
57
|
43
|
76
|
51
|
41
|
62
|
72
|
55
|
60
|
52
|
Not
sure/refused
|
12
|
5
|
13
|
12
|
6
|
17
|
12
|
13
|
8
|
11
|
16
|
8
|
Age
|
Race
|
Education
|
|||||||
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Non-White
|
HS
or less
|
College
|
Adv.
Degree
|
|
Approve
|
30
|
30
|
33
|
37
|
32
|
32
|
36
|
31
|
32
|
Disapprove
|
55
|
56
|
55
|
61
|
56
|
59
|
55
|
55
|
56
|
Not
sure/refused
|
15
|
14
|
12
|
2
|
12
|
9
|
9
|
14
|
12
|
KENTUCKY LEGISLATURE
Do
you approve or disapprove of the way the Kentucky state legislature is handling
its job?
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||||
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
Approve
|
25
|
21
|
24
|
31
|
20
|
23
|
26
|
26
|
19
|
26
|
22
|
25
|
Disapprove
|
58
|
57
|
57
|
50
|
65
|
61
|
57
|
54
|
70
|
52
|
73
|
58
|
Not
sure/refused
|
17
|
12
|
19
|
19
|
15
|
16
|
17
|
20
|
11
|
22
|
5
|
17
|
Age
|
Race
|
Education
|
|||||||
AD
|
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Non-White
|
HS
or less
|
College
|
Adv.
Degree
|
Approve
|
31
|
27
|
20
|
16
|
24
|
28
|
26
|
25
|
20
|
Disapprove
|
58
|
55
|
59
|
64
|
58
|
57
|
54
|
58
|
69
|
Not
sure/refused
|
11
|
18
|
21
|
20
|
18
|
15
|
20
|
17
|
11
|
MITCH MCCONNELL
Do
you approve or disapprove of the way Mitch McConnell is handling his job as
Senator?
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||||
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
Approve
|
30
|
31
|
30
|
37
|
21
|
30
|
28
|
35
|
21
|
32
|
28
|
27
|
Disapprove
|
56
|
61
|
54
|
47
|
67
|
56
|
60
|
47
|
68
|
53
|
60
|
62
|
Not
sure/refused
|
14
|
8
|
16
|
16
|
12
|
14
|
12
|
18
|
11
|
15
|
12
|
11
|
Age
|
Race
|
Education
|
|||||||
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Non-White
|
HS
or less
|
College
|
Adv.
Degree
|
|
Approve
|
45
|
28
|
23
|
14
|
30
|
31
|
34
|
28
|
26
|
Disapprove
|
45
|
58
|
63
|
64
|
58
|
43
|
56
|
55
|
65
|
Not
sure/refused
|
10
|
14
|
14
|
22
|
12
|
26
|
10
|
17
|
9
|
RAND PAUL
Do
you approve or disapprove of the way Rand Paul is handling his job as
Senator?
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||||
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
Approve
|
45
|
51
|
43
|
60
|
23
|
55
|
60
|
43
|
24
|
46
|
36
|
45
|
Disapprove
|
42
|
43
|
42
|
28
|
61
|
38
|
31
|
38
|
65
|
40
|
52
|
43
|
Not
sure/refused
|
13
|
6
|
15
|
12
|
14
|
8
|
9
|
19
|
11
|
14
|
12
|
12
|
Age
|
Race
|
Education
|
|||||||
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Non-White
|
HS
or less
|
College
|
Adv.
Degree
|
|
Approve
|
43
|
52
|
38
|
44
|
46
|
39
|
39
|
50
|
44
|
Disapprove
|
42
|
37
|
47
|
50
|
41
|
53
|
48
|
38
|
47
|
Not
sure/refused
|
15
|
11
|
15
|
6
|
13
|
8
|
13
|
12
|
9
|
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Regardless
of how you voted in the last election, do you consider yourself to be a
Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
Democrat 36%
Independent 20%
Republican 40%
Not
Sure 4%
IDEOLOGY
On a
scale of one to ten where one represents very liberal and ten represents very
conservative where would you place yourself? ***(1-4 classified as liberal, 5-6
as moderate, and 7-10 as conservative)***
Liberal 24%
Moderate 32%
Conservative 40%
Refused 4%
SEX
What
is your sex?
Male 46%
Female 54%
EDUCATION
What
is the highest level of formal education you completed?
Less
Than High School 2%
Some
High School 3%
High
School Graduate/GED 26%
Vocational/Technical
School 10%
Some
College 21%
College
Degree 26%
Post-Graduate
Degree 12%
RACE
Would
you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American,
Asian American, Biracial, or something else? ***(collapsed into white/non-white
categories)***
White 88%
Non-white 12%
AGE
What
is your age?
18-34 26%
35-49 30%
50-64 30%
65+ 18%
INCOME
Which
of the following categories best describes your total household yearly
income? Less than 25,000, 25,000 to less
than 50,000, 50,000 to less than 75,000, 75,000 to less than 100,000, or
100,000 or more? ***(collapsed into less than 50,000, 50,000 to 100,000, and
more than 100,000)***
Less
than 50,000 46%
50,000
to <100,000 38%
100,000
or more 16%
Refused
9%
PENSION 1
Governor
Bevin and a large number of teachers have been in disagreement over how to
reform the pension for Kentucky teachers.
Are you generally more supportive of the Governors position, the
teachers’ position, or are you generally neutral in the in the political debate
over pension reform.
Governor 16%
Teachers 53%
Neutral 20%
Not
sure/refused 11%
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
|||||
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
|
Governor
|
28
|
6
|
10
|
30
|
9
|
7
|
Teachers
|
38
|
71
|
50
|
36
|
63
|
75
|
Neutral
|
24
|
13
|
28
|
26
|
19
|
12
|
Not
sure/refused
|
8
|
10
|
13
|
8
|
9
|
6
|
PENSION 2
Do
you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Bevin has handled the pension
crisis?
Approve 29%
Disapprove 62%
Not
sure/Refused
9%
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
|||||
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
|
Approve
|
41
|
16
|
32
|
43
|
24
|
18
|
Disapprove
|
48
|
78
|
60
|
48
|
66
|
78
|
Not
sure/refused
|
11
|
7
|
8
|
9
|
10
|
5
|
PENSION 3
Several
school districts across Kentucky closed over the past couple of weeks to allow
teacher to go to Frankfort to protest pension reform legislation. Did these actions make you more likely to
support, less likely to support, or have no impact on your support of proposed
pension reform?
More
likely 18%
Less
likely 36%
No
impact 32%
Not
sure/Refused 14%
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
|||||
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
|
More
likely
|
23
|
18
|
16
|
22
|
18
|
17
|
Less
likely
|
36
|
44
|
27
|
30
|
37
|
48
|
No
impact
|
23
|
27
|
43
|
44
|
33
|
16
|
Not
sure/refused
|
18
|
12
|
14
|
4
|
1
|
0
|
PENSION 4
Do
you support or oppose the following proposals as ways to help the state
government fund the state's pension obligations?
Tax
increases
Support 24%
Oppose 54%
Not
sure/Refused 22%
Marijuana
Legalization
Support 46%
Oppose 39%
Not
sure/Refused 15%
Casino
Gambling
Support 56%
Oppose 22%
Not
sure/Refused 22%
ARMED RESOURCE OFFICER
Do
you think the state of Kentucky should, or should not, allocate state money
each year to pay the salary and other related expenses to put a full-time
armed, trained law enforcement officer -- known as a school resource officer --
in every public school in the state?
Should 70%
Should
not 15%
Not
sure/Refused 15%
ARMED RESOURCE OFFICER FOLLOW UP
Would
you support an increase in taxes to support putting a school resource officer
in every Kentucky public school? ***(asked to those who answered should to
previous question)***
Yes 63%
No 20%
Not
sure/Refused 17%
AR-15 AGE LIMIT
Do
you think Kentucky should, or should not, pass a law raising the minimum age
for purchasing a semi-automatic weapon, such as the AR-15, from 18-21 years
old?
Should 70%
Should
not 23%
Not
sure/Refused 7%
BIGGEST PROBLEM
What
do you believe is the biggest problem facing Kentucky? ***(open ended)***
Pension
crisis 19%
Opiod
crisis 15%
Education 10%
All
others combined 56%
***Problems
listed are ones that reached double digit percentage in mentions***
