KENTUCKY GENERAL ELECTION SURVEY
The
WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a
live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 602 likely voters
in Kentucky between October 25-30, 2016.
The sample consisted of registered voters in Kentucky, and likely
participants were defined as those indicated a likelihood of participating in
the caucus of at least a 7 on a 10 point scale.
70% of respondents were reached via land line, and 30% were reached via
cell phone. The survey has a margin of
error of +/- 4%.
PRESIDENTIAL RACE
According
to the latest Big Red Poll, Republican Donald Trump leads Democrat Hillary
Clinton 54% - 37% in the Presidential race in the Commonwealth. Independent Evan McMullin, Libertarian Gary
Johnson, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are polling at roughly 1% each,
with 6% indicating they are still undecided.
Both
candidates are doing well among their respective partisan and ideological
groups. Among Republicans, Trump leads Clinton
84%-8%, and among conservatives Trump leads 79%-12%. Conversely, among Democrats Clinton leads
Trump 68%-22%, and among liberals Clinton leads 83%-10%. Trump leads among independents by a margin of
62%-29% and among moderate voters 50%-41%.
Trump leads among white voters 60%-33%.
One of the more surprising findings of this survey involves gender, as
Trump leads among both male (61%-31%) and female voters (48%-44%).
FBI INVESTIGATION
During
the middle of the Big Red Poll FBI director James Comey announced that he was
reopening the investigation into Hillary Clinton. This put us in the unique position to
determine what, if any, impact this scandal has had in the short term. We found that in the aftermath of Comey’s
announcement Secretary Clinton’s numbers dropped four points, as she polled at
39% in the days before the announcement but only 35% in the days after the
announcement. The sample sizes pre- and
post-announcement were very similar (312 pre-announcement and 290
post-announcement).
QUALIFIED TO BE PRESIDENT
Respondents
were also asked whether they thought Trump or Clinton was more qualified to be
President, whether both were qualified, or if neither was qualified. 36% of respondents believed that Trump was
more qualified, while 35% or respondents thought that Clinton was more
qualified. A quarter of the sample felt
that neither candidate was qualified to be President. Along party lines, Republicans appeared to be
most disenchanted with the candidates, as 28% of this group felt neither
candidate was qualified to be President, as opposed to 16% of Democrats and 20%
of Independents.
U.S. SENATE RACE
According
to the latest Big Red Poll, Republican Senator Rand Paul leads Democratic
challenger Jim Gray 55% - 39% among likely Kentucky voters. 6% indicated that they are still
undecided. Among Republicans, Paul leads
Gray 80%-13%, and among conservatives he leads 77%-17%. Conversely, among Democrats Gray leads Paul
67%-30%, and among liberals Gray leads 68%-27%.
Paul leads among independents by a margin of 57%-34%. Among moderate voters the pair and
statistically tied at 49%. Paul leads
among white voters 61%-32%. Paul also
leads among both male (64%-32%) and female voters (46%-44%). Among Trump supporters, Paul leads Gray 79%-13%. Among Clinton supporters, Gray leads Paul 78%-18%.
TEA PARTY
The
TEA party has recently played a significant role in Kentucky politics. 13% of those surveyed self-identified as
members of the TEA Party. Additionally,
33% of those who did not self-identify indicated that they were sympathetic to
the views expressed by the TEA Party. In
the Presidential race, Trump has done well among both groups, as he leads
Clinton 76%-18% among self-described TEA Party members and 74%-20% among those
who consider themselves to be sympathetic to the cause of the TEA Party. With regard to the Senate race, Paul leads
81%-10% among TEA Party members and 83%-11% among TEA Party sympathizers.
FAVORABILITY RATINGS
Respondents
were asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable view of several state
and national political figures.
Donald
Trump 48% Favorable 49% Unfavorable 3% Not Sure
Hillary
Clinton 34% Favorable 64% Unfavorable 2% Not Sure
Barack
Obama 31% Favorable 68% Unfavorable 1% Not Sure
Rand
Paul 49% Favorable 42% Unfavorable 9% Not Sure
Jim
Gray 33% Favorable 21% Unfavorable 46% Not Sure
Mitch
McConnell 30% Favorable 60% Unfavorable 10% Not Sure
Matt
Bevin 43% Favorable 42% Unfavorable 15% Not Sure
JOB APPROVAL
Respondents
were also asked to evaluate the job performance of the President, Congress, and
Governor.
Barack
Obama 36% Approve 61% Disapprove 3% Not Sure
Congress 14% Approve 78%
Disapprove 8% Not Sure
Matt
Bevin 46% Approve 41%
Disapprove 13% Not Sure
ABOUT THE WKU SSRC
The
WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a
coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology,
and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct
surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person
interviews. For the latest news on what
is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) or follow
us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC)
PRESIDENTIAL RACE
If
the Presidential election were held today, would you vote for Republican Donald
Trump, Democrat Hillary Clinton, Independent Evan McMullin, Libertarian Gary
Johnson, Green Party Candidate Jill Stein, or are you undecided? [Names Rotated]
|
|
|
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||
|
|
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
Trump
|
54
|
61
|
48
|
84
|
21
|
62
|
79
|
50
|
10
|
65
|
51
|
44
|
|
Clinton
|
37
|
31
|
44
|
8
|
68
|
29
|
12
|
41
|
83
|
26
|
43
|
43
|
|
Johnson
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
|
McMullin
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
5
|
|
Stein
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
5
|
|
Undecided
|
6
|
3
|
5
|
4
|
8
|
3
|
3
|
6
|
3
|
5
|
2
|
2
|
|
|
Age
|
Race
|
||||
|
|
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Nonwhite
|
|
Trump
|
59
|
60
|
52
|
47
|
60
|
29
|
|
Clinton
|
28
|
36
|
40
|
38
|
33
|
65
|
|
Johnson
|
1
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
2
|
|
McMullin
|
5
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
|
Stein
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
2
|
1
|
1
|
|
Undecided
|
4
|
1
|
5
|
9
|
4
|
2
|
SENATE RACE
If
the Kentucky Senate election were held today, would you vote for Republican
Rand Paul, Democrat Jim Gray, or are you undecided? [Names Rotated]
|
|
|
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||
|
|
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
Paul
|
55
|
64
|
48
|
80
|
30
|
57
|
77
|
49
|
27
|
65
|
55
|
50
|
|
Gray
|
39
|
32
|
44
|
13
|
67
|
34
|
17
|
49
|
68
|
30
|
41
|
43
|
|
Undecided
|
6
|
4
|
8
|
7
|
3
|
9
|
6
|
2
|
5
|
5
|
4
|
7
|
|
|
Age
|
Race
|
||||
|
|
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Nonwhite
|
|
Paul
|
57
|
63
|
59
|
63
|
61
|
35
|
|
Gray
|
32
|
31
|
45
|
35
|
32
|
65
|
|
Undecided
|
10
|
6
|
6
|
2
|
7
|
10
|
FAVORABILITY
Please
indicate whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, neutral, or no opinion on
each of the following politicians [Names Rotated]
Favorable Unfavorable Not Enough Info
Donald
Trump 48% 49%
3%
Hillary
Clinton 34% 64%
2%
Barack
Obama 31%
68%
1%
Rand
Paul 49%
42%
9%
Jim
Gray 33% 21%
46%
Mitch
McConnell 30% 60%
10%
Matt
Bevin 43% 42% 15%
QUALIFIED TO BE PRESIDENT
Who
do you believe is more qualified to be President: Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton, both are
equally qualified, neither is qualified?
Donald
Trump 36%
Hillary
Clinton 35%
Both 2%
Neither 25%
Not
Sure 2%
PARTY ID
Do
you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, Independent, or are you not sure?
Republican 42%
Democrat 42%
Independent 13%
Not
Sure 3%
IDEOLOGY
Do
you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate, or conservative, or are you not
sure?
Liberal 26%
Moderate 27%
Conservative 42%
Not
Sure 5%
TEA PARTY 1
Do
you consider yourself to be a member of the TEA Party?
Yes
13%
No
87%
TEA PARTY 2
(If
not a member) Do you consider yourself to be sympathetic to the goals of the
TEA Party?
Yes 33%
No 45%
Not
Sure 22%
GENDER
What
is your gender?
Male 47%
Female 53%
RACE
Would
you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American,
Asian American, Biracial, or something else?
White 85%
African-American 8%
Hispanic 5%
Other 2%
AGE
What
is your age?
18-34 21%
35-49 26%
50-64 28%
65+ 25%
INCOME
Is
your annual household income less than 25,000; 25,000 to less than 50,000;
50,000 to less than 75,000; 75,000 to less than 100,000; 100,000 or more?
Less
than 25,000 11%
25,000
to <50,000 21%
50,000
to <75,000 19%
75,000
to <100,000 12%
100,000
or more 16%
Refused 22%