STATE ELECTION SURVEY
The
WKU Social Science Research Center (SSRC) conducted the Big Red Poll, a
live-caller, dual frame (landline and cell phone) survey of 770 likely Kentucky
voters between October 19-October 25, 2015.
70% of respondents were reached via land line, and 30% were reached via
cell phone. The survey has a margin of
error of +/- 3.5%.
ATTORNEY GENERAL
Democrat
Andy Beshear leads Republican Whitney Westerfield 42% - 36% among likely
Kentucky voters. 22% indicated that they
are still undecided. Among Democrats
Beshear leads Westerfield 80%-5%, and among liberals Beshear leads 76%-8%. Among Republicans, Westerfield leads Beshear
73%-10%, and among conservatives Westerfield leads 56%-24%. Beshear leads among independents by a margin
of 34%-29% and moderate voters 53%-25%. Beshear
leads among female voters (46%-30%), while Westerfield leads among male voters
(42%-37%).
SECRETARY OF STATE
Democratic
incumbent Allison Lundergan-Grimes has the largest lead of all the races we
surveyed, as she leads Republican challenger Steve Knipper by 11 points. Among Democrats Grimes has an 86%-6% lead, and
among liberals she leads 82%-8%. Among
Republicans, Knipper leads 67%-8%, and among conservatives Knippere leads 54%-26%. Grimes leads among independents by a margin
of 46%-33% and moderate voters 57%-23%.
Grimes also leads among both male (43% - 40%) and female (50% - 31%)
voters.
STATE AUDITOR
In
the race for auditor, Democratic incumbent Adam Edelen leads Republican
challenger Mike Harmon 40% - 35%. 25%
indicated that they are still undecided.
Edelen leads among Democrats 76%-3%, and among liberals he leads 78%-4%. Harmon leads among Republicans 69%-13%, and
among conservatives he leads 55%-22%. Harmon
leads among independents by a margin of 28%-25%, while Edelen leads among
moderate voters 46%-24%. The candidates
are tied among male voters (39%-39%), while Edelen leads among female voters
(42%-30%).
STATE TREASURER
Republican
Allison Ball leads Democrat Rick Nelson 37% - 32%. 31% indicated that they are still
undecided. Ball leads 70%-10% among
Republicans and 58%-15% among conservatives.
Nelson leads 60%-8% among Democrats and 62% - 5% among liberals. Ball leads among moderates (38%-27%) and
independents (36%-29%). Nelson has a
slight lead among female voters (31%-30%), while Ball has a more significant lead
among male voters (43%-32%).
AGRICULTURE COMMISSIONER
Republican
Ryan Quarles leads Democrat Jean-Marie Lawson Spann 37% - 30%, with roughly 1/3
of voters indicating that they are still undecided. Among Republicans, Quarles leads 67%-3%, and
among conservatives he leads 56%-17%.
Spann leads among Democrats 61%-8%, and among liberals 63%-6%. Quarles leads among independents by a margin
of 31%-27%, and Spann leads among moderate voters 30%-25%. Spann leads by 1 point among female voters
(31%-30%), while Quarles leads by 12 points among male voters (41%-29%).
ABOUT THE WKU SSRC
The
WKU Social Science Research, established in October 2012 as part of a
coordinated effort involving the Departments of Political Science, Sociology,
and Public Health, is a computer assisted survey lab with the capacity to conduct
surveys via telephone, mail, online, and through the use of in-person
interviews. For the latest news on what
is happening at the WKU SSRC like us on Facebook (facebook.com/WKUSSRC) or
follow us on Twitter (@WKUSSRC).
ATTORNEY GENERAL
If
the election for Attorney General were held today, would you vote for
Republican Whitney Westerfield, Democrat Andy Beshear, or are you undecided? [Names
Rotated]
|
|
|
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||
|
|
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
Beshear
|
42
|
37
|
46
|
10
|
80
|
34
|
24
|
53
|
76
|
44
|
41
|
37
|
|
Westerfield
|
36
|
42
|
30
|
73
|
5
|
29
|
56
|
25
|
8
|
22
|
41
|
54
|
|
Undecided
|
22
|
21
|
24
|
17
|
15
|
37
|
20
|
12
|
16
|
34
|
18
|
9
|
|
Total
|
100
|
48
|
52
|
39
|
39
|
20
|
42
|
31
|
20
|
40
|
38
|
13
|
|
|
Age
|
Race
|
||||
|
|
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Black
|
|
Beshear
|
40
|
30
|
43
|
54
|
41
|
75
|
|
Westerfield
|
32
|
40
|
38
|
30
|
38
|
10
|
|
Undecided
|
28
|
40
|
19
|
16
|
21
|
15
|
|
Total
|
20
|
30
|
30
|
20
|
89
|
6
|
SECRETARY OF STATE
If
the election for Secretary of State were held today, would you vote for
Republican Steve Knipper, Democrat Allison Lundergan Grimes, or are you
undecided? [Names Rotated]
|
|
|
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||
|
|
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
Grimes
|
46
|
43
|
50
|
8
|
86
|
46
|
26
|
57
|
82
|
50
|
46
|
54
|
|
Knipper
|
35
|
40
|
31
|
67
|
6
|
33
|
54
|
23
|
8
|
26
|
40
|
34
|
|
Undecided
|
19
|
17
|
19
|
25
|
8
|
21
|
10
|
20
|
10
|
24
|
14
|
12
|
|
Total
|
100
|
48
|
52
|
39
|
39
|
20
|
42
|
31
|
20
|
40
|
38
|
13
|
|
|
Age
|
Race
|
||||
|
|
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Black
|
|
Grimes
|
48
|
38
|
47
|
56
|
44
|
80
|
|
Knipper
|
29
|
38
|
39
|
24
|
37
|
6
|
|
Undecided
|
23
|
24
|
14
|
20
|
19
|
14
|
|
Total
|
20
|
30
|
30
|
20
|
89
|
6
|
AUDITOR
If
the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Republican Mike
Harmon, Democrat Adam Edelen, or are you undecided? [Names Rotated]
|
|
|
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||
|
|
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
Edelen
|
40
|
39
|
42
|
13
|
76
|
28
|
22
|
46
|
78
|
38
|
41
|
47
|
|
Harmon
|
35
|
39
|
30
|
69
|
2
|
26
|
55
|
24
|
4
|
32
|
37
|
30
|
|
Undecided
|
25
|
22
|
28
|
18
|
22
|
46
|
23
|
30
|
18
|
30
|
22
|
23
|
|
Total
|
100
|
48
|
52
|
39
|
39
|
20
|
42
|
31
|
20
|
40
|
38
|
13
|
|
|
Age
|
Race
|
||||
|
|
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Black
|
|
Edelen
|
38
|
42
|
49
|
49
|
39
|
69
|
|
Harmon
|
36
|
32
|
23
|
23
|
36
|
10
|
|
Undecided
|
26
|
26
|
28
|
28
|
25
|
21
|
|
Total
|
20
|
30
|
30
|
20
|
89
|
6
|
TREASURER
If
the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Republican
Allison Ball, Democrat Rick Nelson, or are you undecided? [Names Rotated]
|
|
|
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||
|
|
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
Ball
|
37
|
43
|
30
|
70
|
60
|
29
|
58
|
27
|
5
|
33
|
39
|
36
|
|
Nelson
|
32
|
32
|
31
|
4
|
6
|
36
|
15
|
38
|
62
|
36
|
32
|
31
|
|
Undecided
|
31
|
25
|
39
|
26
|
32
|
35
|
27
|
35
|
33
|
31
|
29
|
33
|
|
Total
|
100
|
48
|
52
|
39
|
39
|
20
|
42
|
31
|
20
|
40
|
38
|
13
|
|
|
Age
|
Race
|
||||
|
|
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Black
|
|
Ball
|
37
|
40
|
48
|
58
|
38
|
14
|
|
Nelson
|
35
|
28
|
40
|
30
|
30
|
51
|
|
Undecided
|
28
|
32
|
5
|
8
|
32
|
35
|
|
Total
|
20
|
30
|
30
|
20
|
89
|
6
|
AGRICULTURE COMMISSIONER
If
the election for Governor were held today, would you vote for Republican Ryan
Quarles, Democrat Jean-Marie Lawson Spann, or are you undecided? [Names
Rotated]
|
|
|
Gender
|
Party Id
|
Ideology
|
Income
|
|||||||
|
|
All
|
Men
|
Women
|
Rep
|
Dem
|
Ind
|
Con
|
Mod
|
Lib
|
<50
|
50<100
|
100+
|
|
Quarles
|
37
|
41
|
31
|
67
|
8
|
31
|
56
|
25
|
6
|
30
|
38
|
37
|
|
Spann
|
33
|
29
|
32
|
3
|
61
|
27
|
17
|
30
|
63
|
33
|
33
|
33
|
|
Undecided
|
30
|
30
|
37
|
30
|
31
|
42
|
27
|
45
|
31
|
37
|
29
|
30
|
|
Total
|
100
|
48
|
52
|
39
|
39
|
20
|
42
|
31
|
20
|
40
|
38
|
13
|
|
|
Age
|
Race
|
||||
|
|
18-34
|
35-49
|
50-64
|
65+
|
White
|
Black
|
|
Quarles
|
40
|
35
|
38
|
27
|
38
|
6
|
|
Spann
|
33
|
24
|
30
|
39
|
29
|
49
|
|
Undecided
|
27
|
31
|
32
|
34
|
33
|
45
|
|
Total
|
20
|
30
|
30
|
20
|
89
|
6
|
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Do
you consider yourself to be a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
Democrat 39%
Independent 20%
Republican 39%
Not
Sure 2%
IDEOLOGY
Do
you consider yourself to be a liberal, moderate, or conservative?
Liberal 20%
Moderate 31%
Conservative 42%
Refused 7%
GENDER
What
is your gender?
Male 48%
Female 52%
EDUCATION
What
is the highest level of formal education you completed?
Less
Than High School 2%
Some
High School 3%
High
School Graduate/GED 23%
Vocational/Technical
School 6%
Some
College 21%
College
Degree 30%
Post-Graduate
Degree 15%
RACE
Would
you describe your race as White, African-American, Hispanic, Native American,
Asian American, Biracial, or something else?
White 89%
African-American 6%
Hispanic 3%
Other 2%
AGE
What
is your age?
18-34 20%
35-49 30%
50-64 30%
65+ 20%
INCOME
Is
your annual household income less than 25,000; 25,000 to less than 50,000;
50,000 to less than 75,000; 75,000 to less than 100,000; 100,000 or more?
Less
than 25,000 12%
25,000
to <50,000 28%
50,000
to <75,000 25%
75,000
to <100,000 13%
100,000
or more 13%
Refused
9%